April 11-13, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[StormfanaticInd]

Negative tilt

[Iceresistance]

Saw this forecast from KWTV-News 9, you can clearly see the Dew Point levels next week

 

[ElectricStorm]

Current thoughts for next week: 
Mon 4/11: Should see severe storms across the plains. My early guess is that this is the least active of the 3 days, but it's still gonna have some potential. Especially if moisture return can get just a little bit better than models have it right now. 

Tues 4/12: This is actually the one that has most of my attention right now. Good moisture return, great instability, and what looks to be great timing (as of right now at least) for the potential for significant severe weather across the area. Right now it would most likely be east of the I-35 corridor, but most of the time the trough ends up moving slower than forecast, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see some slight west shifts over the next several days. Still way too far out for any specifics on location and max potential but this one certainly has my attention. 

Wed 4/13: A huge amount of uncertainty with this one. There's gonna be severe weather somewhere, but we won't know for sure until several days from now. Deterministic GFS runs shifted the location of the low/trough 1500 miles in one run. So yeah they're all over the place. For this range, using ensembles is much better and so far they all seem to be east of our area (TX/OK). That being said, west shifts usually happen and I think we could end up with something here in the plains, like I said it's gonna take several days before we can talk about any kind of specifics. Definitely doesn't help when people on social media are using terms like "monster outbreak" and "potential historic event" 8 days out, I wish they would stop doing that...

Long ways out for sure still a lot of uncertainties but we'll likely be dealing with some sort of severe weather next week, especially Mon-Tues. Personally I don't think it's anything to get too worried about yet. If we get to the weekend and it's still looking big then we can talk about a potentially bigger threat. Definitely gotta watch it though. Stay tuned...

Edited April 7, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[StormfanaticInd]

7 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Current thoughts for next week: 
Mon 4/11: Should see severe storms across the plains. My early guess is that this is the least active of the 3 days, but it's still gonna have some potential. Especially if moisture return can get just a little bit better than models have it right now. 

Tues 4/12: This is actually the one that has most of my attention right now. Good moisture return, great instability, and what looks to be great timing (as of right now at least) for the potential for significant severe weather across the area. Right now it would most likely be east of the I-35 corridor, but most of the time the trough ends up moving slower than forecast, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see some slight west shifts over the next several days. Still way too far out for any specifics on location and max potential but this one certainly has my attention. 

Wed 4/13: A huge amount of uncertainty with this one. There's gonna be severe weather somewhere, but we won't know for sure until several days from now. Deterministic GFS runs shifted the location of the low/trough 1500 miles in one run. So yeah they're all over the place. For this range, using ensembles is much better and so far they all seem to be east of our area (TX/OK). That being said, west shifts usually happen and I think we could end up with something here in the plains, like I said it's gonna take several days before we can talk about any kind of specifics. Definitely doesn't help when people on social media are using terms like "monster outbreak" and "potential historic event" 8 days out, I wish they would stop doing that...

Long ways out for sure still a lot of uncertainties but we'll likely be dealing with some sort of severe weather next week, especially Mon-Tues. Personally I don't think it's anything to get too worried about yet. If we get to the weekend and it's still looking big then we can talk about a potentially bigger threat. Definitely gotta watch it though. Stay tuned...

I agree. There is a lot that goes into severe setups. You can have everything there but a morning mcs or a stronger than expected cap can ruin the setup. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS has had a long history of sensing something about Tuesday. A few runs have had effective shear values below the SCP threshold but the last 3 runs have had high-end parameters.

[Central Illinois]

Looks like a multi day severe weather outbreak is on the way!

[StormfanaticInd]

Impressive ensembles. 

[snowlover2]

6 hours ago, Central Illinois said:

Looks like a multi day severe weather outbreak is on the way!

The text.

Quote

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CDT Thu Apr 07 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Sun - Portions of North/Central TX into far Southern OK...

   A large-scale upper trough will persist across the western U.S. on
   Sunday. Forecast guidance has trended toward an initial shortwave
   trough ejecting eastward across the northern Plains into the Upper
   Midwest. This will result in neutral to small height falls across
   the southern Plains, and a weak surface low should develop over
   western OK or the TX Panhandle vicinity. A dryline will extend
   southward from the low through west-central/southwest TX. Increasing
   southerly low-level flow transports Gulf moisture northward across
   TX into southern OK to the east of the dryline. A
   conditional/low-probability severe threat will exist in the vicinity
   of the dryline, but midlevel capping may suppress convection.
   Additionally, better quality boundary-layer moisture will not arrive
   until after 00z, further resulting in uncertainty in whether capping
   can be overcome to achieve the development of a couple of
   supercells. The uncertain/conditional nature of the threat will
   preclude severe probs at this time.

   ...Days 5-7/Mon-Wed - Southern Plains toward the Mid/Lower MS
   Valley...

   A multi-day severe thunderstorm episode appears increasingly likely
   for parts of the southern Plains toward the Mid/Lower MS Valley
   early to mid week. 

   Forecast guidance remains similar to previous days with a
   large-scale trough persisting over the western U.S. through Tuesday,
   before ejecting eastward across the Plains on Wednesday. Ahead of
   the trough on Monday/Tuesday, a couple of weak midlevel shortwave
   impulses eject northeast from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico,
   providing subtle large-scale ascent across the region. A surface
   dryline will develop each day across western or central OK into
   central TX. Persistent southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
   dewpoints northward into the Plains and the Ozark Plateau, and
   isolated severe storms are likely Monday. Severe storm coverage may
   increase and shift somewhat eastward on Tuesday as the shortwave
   impulse ejecting across the region appears to be a bit stronger. 

   By Wednesday, the western upper trough is forecast to eject eastward
   into the Plains. A strong surface low will develop in the vicinity
   of the central Plains and spread northeast toward the Mid/Upper MS
   Valley, while the associated surface cold front sweeps eastward
   across the Plains toward the MS River. Favorable boundary-layer
   moisture will reside beneath a strongly sheared environment and
   potentially widespread strong to severe storms are possible from
   eastern OK/TX toward the Mid/Lower MS Valley. Some uncertainty still
   exists regarding the north and east extent of the severe threat on
   Wednesday, and the 15 percent delineation will likely be refined
   over the coming days.

   ..Leitman.. 04/07/2022

 

 

[snowlover2]

ILN who usually doesn't say much about a system this far out mentions multiple rounds of rain and storms with possible severe here.

Quote

No matter how pcpn chances unfold Monday morning into the
daytime period, the pattern does seem to once again become a bit
more active toward Tuesday/midweek of next week as a strong
midlevel S/W ejects into the central plains, inducing broad SW
flow aloft across the OH/TN Vlys, providing an avenue for
various pieces of embedded energy to translate NE through the
region from late Monday into late Tuesday night. By Wednesday,
the deepening/dynamic system across the heart of the CONUS will
drift far enough E to put parts of the OH Vly more squarely in
the open warm sector, with a cold front due to move into the
area sometime late Wednesday into Thursday. Strictly speaking
from a pattern recognition perspective, this may be a setup
conducive to multiple rounds of rain/storms from Tuesday through
Thursday, with a severe risk potential sometime midweek as
well. Too early to speak on specifics, but the pattern alone
will be watched carefully for an uptick in active weather toward
the end of the long term period as temps and moisture
availability both increase across the OH Vly with the approach
of a dynamic system by Wednesday.

 

 

[StormfanaticInd]

36 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

ILN who usually doesn't say much about a system this far out mentions multiple rounds of rain and storms with possible severe here.

 

From Indy

The pattern shifts for late weekend as ridging expands east into the Ohio Valley and remains over the region through the middle of next week. With increasing southerly flow as well...expect temperatures to surge into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday with multiple days in the upper 60s to mid 70s for the first half of next week. A warm front will eventually align across the lower Great Lakes by Monday and be in a close enough proximity to generate periodic scattered convection across parts of central Indiana. Ensemble guidance continues to differ to some degree on the ejection of a strong surface low or perhaps multiple surface waves across the central Plains on Wednesday with a dominant low pressure wrapping up across the upper Midwest by Thursday. This system is expected to bring a more widespread severe weather risk to much of the central part of the country Tuesday and Wednesday with some potential for severe convection to expand into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. Still too early for any specific details at this point...but the takeaway message is that signals are there for a multi-day severe weather event next week over the central U S that may spread into our area by the end of the forecast period. Stay tuned.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Yet another 'severe weather episode' wording from SPC. Surprised they didn't go enhanced risk, but given the fact 6z and 12z GFS maintained a higher-end threat, I'm sure they'll crank out at least one enhanced risk tomorrow.

My parents are out in NW Arkansas looking for a home for the next two weeks or so. I believe in the Fayetteville area. Kicking myself a little bit for not going with them now. Oh well... I won't be surprised if the OV pulls off a severe weather day out of seemingly nowhere.

Edited April 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Yet another 'severe weather episode' wording from SPC. Surprised they didn't go enhanced risk, but given the fact 6z and 12z GFS maintained a higher-end threat, I'm sure they'll crank out at least one enhanced risk tomorrow.

My parents are out in NW Arkansas looking for a home for the next two weeks or so. I believe in the Fayetteville area. Kicking myself a little bit for not going with them now. Oh well... I won't be surprised if the OV pulls off a severe weather day out of seemingly nowhere.

Too bad I'm not not back home in NE OK. They've got all 3 slight risks and I'm only in 1 for now. I think Tuesday will shift west a bit though so we've still got a chance here. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

This year is really starting to stand out. 3/30 is now at 109 tornado reports and 4/5 at 68. We're in the rare company of 2017, 2012, and 2008. We're ahead of 2011 right now but won't last long and it'll soon... literally... skyrocket.

2017 and 2012 were extremely front-loaded tornado years that died off after the first or second week of April. 2008 and 2011 were extreme pretty much the entire year. It'll be interesting to see which group 2022 will belong to.

It's wild to see years like 2014, 2015, and 2010 had less than 100 tornado reports to this point.

Edited April 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[NebraskaEgg]

I'm spending the next five months in Alaska starting on the 29th so I'm hoping one of these severe weather days in April pays a visit to Nebraska... didn't get much from the last one and unfortunately April isn't exactly peak severe weather season up here, but I hope I'll get to see at least one before I leave.

 

If not, can always watch the show the south likes to provide from afar. Off to a crazy year already.

[ClicheVortex2014]

18z GFS just topped itself. Widespread 35+ supercell composite from SE NE down into E KS and N OK. Significant tornado parameter between 6-12. 
 

Nice, strong dryline… dew points in the mid-upper 60s… 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates… negative tilt axis from NE Wyoming to central Kansas with a 986mb low in north-central KS/south-central NE. This is the kind of setup that makes tornado alley so infamous… the kind of setup we haven’t seen in many years

Edited April 7, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[1816]

24 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

18z GFS just topped itself. Widespread 35+ supercell composite from SE NE down into E KS and N OK. Significant tornado parameter between 6-12. 
 

Nice, strong dryline… dew points in the mid-upper 60s… 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates… negative tilt axis from NE Wyoming to central Kansas with a 986mb low in north-central KS/south-central NE. This is the kind of setup that makes tornado alley so infamous… the kind of setup we haven’t seen in many years

Man, Cliche.  Seems like every time I turn around it's getting worse. This sounds really bad. When you are saying stuff like this it's time to pay attention. 

[ElectricStorm]

7 minutes ago, 1816 said:

Man, Cliche.  Seems like every time I turn around it's getting worse. This sounds really bad. When you are saying stuff like this it's time to pay attention. 

Yeah if this run were to verify that would be something we haven't seen out here in a while, a big widespread event over several states. Still a ton of time for it to change one way or another so there's no guarantees, but Tues is the one that has most of my attention right now. 

[1816]

7 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Yeah if this run were to verify that would be something we haven't seen out here in a while, a big widespread event over several states. Still a ton of time for it to change one way or another so there's no guarantees, but Tues is the one that has most of my attention right now. 

I don't follow this like you guys do but anecdotally it seems like these large outbreaks are where we get strong f4 and f5s. Hopefully not this time. 

[ElectricStorm]

12 minutes ago, 1816 said:

I don't follow this like you guys do but anecdotally it seems like these large outbreaks are where we get strong f4 and f5s. Hopefully not this time. 

Luckily the GFS has been all over the place and there's still some big differences in the models. I'm still not all that concerned yet unless models start agreeing on something big when we get closer

[ClicheVortex2014]

50 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Luckily the GFS has been all over the place and there's still some big differences in the models. I'm still not all that concerned yet unless models start agreeing on something big when we get closer

I don’t have data to back it up but GFS has been good at sniffing out events. Euro has been garbage and GFS has had a consistent bias with too little moisture, but at least GFS has been reliable with that bias. 
 

Only about 42 hours out from NAM chiming in

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

18z GFS just topped itself. Widespread 35+ supercell composite from SE NE down into E KS and N OK. Significant tornado parameter between 6-12. 
 

Nice, strong dryline… dew points in the mid-upper 60s… 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates… negative tilt axis from NE Wyoming to central Kansas with a 986mb low in north-central KS/south-central NE. This is the kind of setup that makes tornado alley so infamous… the kind of setup we haven’t seen in many years

The 3km EHI is INSANE!

The 3km Helicity is over 700 in NW Missouri, SW Iowa, & SE Nebraska.

Dewpoints are in the 60s as well, prime fuel for Supercells.

 

Everything is in place for a big outbreak, will the 0z GFS show consistency? Or will it shift south & west?

Edited April 8, 2022 by Iceresistance

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

The 3km EHI is INSANE!

The 3km Helicity is over 700 in NW Missouri, SW Iowa, & SE Nebraska.

Dewpoints are in the 60s as well, prime fuel for Supercells.

 

Everything is in place for a big outbreak, will the 0z GFS show consistency? Or will it shift south & west?

The only question I have about GFS’s solution is if the cap between 850mb and 700mb for most of the area with the greatest parameters will be too much. Surely there’ll be an area where capping won’t be an issue, but how large will that be?
 

That’s usually the problem with Plains events. The EML is fresh from the origin and it’s usually too strong to allow for a supercell to go for 100+ miles, much less keep a tornado on the ground for that long.
 

That’s part of the reason why, even though the Plains gets frequent tornado events for a few months, the longest tracked tornadoes on record are east of the Plains, and why both known Super Outbreaks have been east of the Plains. 5/20/19 was a solid attempt at a Super Outbreak but it was foiled by… guess what… the EML. 
 

That said, the Plains does get most of the most violent tornadoes and setups like this is why. Not saying a violent tornado will happen here, but it’s possible if GFS is right.

Edited April 8, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a slight west shift of 15% area for Tuesday at some point. In fact, I'm pretty much expecting it at this point. 0z GFS looks dangerous, trough looks better than the 18z run while the rest looks the same. Still huge differences overall between GFS and Euro for next week, which is why we need to look for trends. 

First look at CIPS analogues for Tuesday and what immediately stands out is #8 (4/26/91). Very high end setup that produced by far the strongest tornado in my hometown's history, an F4 that ripped through the western side of town. Also produced multiple other tornadoes that were much stronger and more well-known. Luckily most of the others on this list don't look like much. 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F132&rundt=2022040712&map=thbSVR

Again, there's still a lot of things that could mess it up, but the potential for a significant event is there. Overall, I'm still not overly concerned about it. Would like to see more model agreement with less uncertainty but that doesn't generally happen at this range so we'll have to wait a few more days for that probably. 

Edited April 8, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS ain't budging.

Here's supercell composite followed by sbcin. Values between 0 and -30 or -40 are considered breachable caps. Obviously, GFS fires off some convection southwest of Wichita. 

[StormfanaticInd]

Still no agreement on timing but the threat remains real