April 11-13, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[FortySixAnd32]

ILN:

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ILN&issuedby=ILN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[FortySixAnd32]

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/massive-hail-tornado-seen-in-central-texas

 

WOW!!!

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/massive-hail-tornado-seen-in-central-texas

 

WOW!!!

The hail picture has already been posted here

[Iceresistance]

Lot of Lightning just to the south of me, if only if it was above me. -_-

[cperry29]

5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The hail picture has already been posted here

Perhaps he didn’t see it? 

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

Perhaps he didn’t see it? 

That's very possible.

[NWOhioChaser]

Local met Ryan Wichman not impressed in the slightest for our severe risk tonight."

Per his FB post:

Wednesday Rain/Storms Update: 

Heard lots of talk about severe weather potential later tonight -- I really feel that chance is extremely limited. Afternoon rain and clouds will limit juice in the atmosphere. More likely threat for severe storms west into Indiana/Illinois and south."

 

Looks like a dying MCS/squall as it approaches the IN/OH border

Edited April 13, 2022 by NWOhioChaser

[Gerb131]

35 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Looks like a dying MCS/squall as it approaches the IN/OH border

rinse and repeat lol

[Cincysnow]

Latest from SPC 

Spoiler

SPC AC 131258 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. ...Northeast States... Low-level moistening will occur today in the wake of a northward-shifting warm front, with isolated thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon expected to be aided by a northeastward-moving shortwave trough aside from orographic lift. Weak to locally moderate destabilization across central New York into central/eastern Pennsylvania may support a few severe storms as lapse rates diurnally steepen. A few instances of wind damage and hail would be the primary hazards. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/13/2022

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Yikes that's a large MOD

[Harberr62]

Clouds appear to be thinning in western Illinois. 

[Roger89]

16 minutes ago, Harberr62 said:

Clouds appear to be thinning in western Illinois. 

Same in southern Indiana.

[Cincysnow]

Watch coming shortly

[Harberr62]

Sounds like Indy is giving up….

This will be the initial mesoscale update of the day (of which there will be several going forward) to provide a snapshot of our thoughts with respect to how the potential severe risks are evolving for the next 12-15 hours. The overarching theme of this update is that while the severe potential remains for later and we need to be prepared for such...trends continue to introduce more uncertainty in how the ongoing and expected convection into the afternoon eventually impacts the severe risk late afternoon into the evening locally. Essentially now that we are in a nowcast mode...these trends can no longer be ignored. Will address below along with initial thoughts for the main severe potential later today. Hi-res guidance has been hinting to some degree for a day or two at the growing impacts that earlier convection might have on potential severe late today into the evening and starting to see this play out. The remnants of the squall line across the central Plains Tuesday evening are now into eastern Illinois and likely to spread across parts of our forecast area through midday. Primary surface low over Missouri currently with convection developing quickly across the southern half of Missouri. This is occurring a few hours quicker than most model guidance had suggested which is adding uncertainty to later today. Expectation is this area of convection will expand into the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon and this may serve as our best chance at any threat for severe weather here in central Indiana. Beyond this...it is becoming increasingly murky. The NAM has been the one model that has held firm for the intensifying squall line ahead of the cold front this evening while almost all other data has shifted away from this solution. One big reason is that the waves of convection and likely little to no sunshine/cloud breaks look to severely limit available instability for late today into the evening despite the impressive 0-1km storm relative helicity levels exceeding 300 s2/m2 and BL shear levels potentially above 50kts. Such a high shear setup usually does not need much instability but my concerns are that there may be so little that severe potential will be diminished and forced more south closer to the Ohio River and points south into the Tennessee Valley where surface heating is already occurring this morning. The dynamic setup alone warrants a continued mention for severe convection later today but trends are not favorable for as extensive of a threat here locally as they appeared to be the last couple days. So at this point...how might this play out? Our current thoughts are that waves of subsevere convection will continue to move across the forecast area through the first half of the afternoon. The convective complex organizing over southwest Missouri will expand northeast and begin to impact our region after 20Z. Some hints of a more organized line of storms on the leading edge of the complex tracking across mainly our southern counties in a 3-4 hour window late afternoon and early evening and model soundings do support that threat. Damaging winds would be a concern here with a low end/isold tornado risk as well just based on the depth of directional shear in the lowest 2-3km and subtle instability. Further north...cannot rule out a severe storm but likely to be more isolated. Once this passes...not sure there will be much instability left to force much intensity for linear convection along the cold front. There is plenty of wind in the boundary layer that could be drawn down to the surface and produce a brief threat for higher gusts with the line this evening...but model soundings even starting to hint at a developing inversion which could limit that potential as well. So to summarize... - Severe risk continues for later this afternoon into the evening...but uncertainty in coverage and intensity has grown due to the factors discussed above - Main focus for severe convection locally appears to be focusing across our southern counties with a lower threat further north - Convective cluster over southern/SW Missouri may end up providing main risk for severe storms later this afternoon...mainly across our southern forecast area and points further south - Severe potential along the cold front this evening is highly speculative at this point Remain vigilant and prepared for severe weather later today. We will readdress trends early this afternoon.

[ceciliaky]

2 hours ago, Cincysnow said:

Latest from SPC 

  Reveal hidden contents

SPC AC 131258 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours. ...Northeast States... Low-level moistening will occur today in the wake of a northward-shifting warm front, with isolated thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon expected to be aided by a northeastward-moving shortwave trough aside from orographic lift. Weak to locally moderate destabilization across central New York into central/eastern Pennsylvania may support a few severe storms as lapse rates diurnally steepen. A few instances of wind damage and hail would be the primary hazards. ..Guyer/Smith.. 04/13/2022

 

I live 45 miles east (as the crow flies) of the moderate area ... we've had little rain and the sun keeps trying to come out. Every time I think it's going to rain, it doesn't. Not sure if that's bad or not. 

[Cincysnow]

Tornado watch hoisted: 

Spoiler

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southern Arkansas Northwest Louisiana Northeast Texas * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will likely intensify through the afternoon while spreading eastward, with some additional southward development possible by early afternoon near the Texas/Louisiana border. The storm environment favors a mix of embedded bowing segments and supercell structures, while any later southward development would tend to be supercells. A few tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, damaging winds up to 75 mph, and isolated very large hail will all be possible with the most intense storms through mid-late afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Little Rock AR to 65 miles west southwest of Natchitoches LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. &&

 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Enhanced risk has been shrunk down. They also mention that discrete warm sector activity could be HP and/or messy but still pose a threat for strong tornadoes

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1126 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022  
  
VALID 131630Z - 141200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF  
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...MID-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE  
MID-SOUTH...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE  
MID-SOUTH, LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  
TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH WILL BE STRONG, WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY  
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY  
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MODERATE AND ENHANCED RISK AREAS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE THIS MORNING WILL  
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS WILL  
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TIGHTEN THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO EASTERN TEXAS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND ACCELERATE THE FRONT EAST TO THE WESTERN APPALACHIANS  
BY THURSDAY MORNING.   
   
..LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
  
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS ON THE  
SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI ACROSS  
ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS FRONT (OR CONVECTIVELY  
ENHANCED EFFECTIVE FRONT) SHOULD MARK THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY. EAST OF THIS FRONT, WIDESPREAD  
CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND INTO  
ILLINOIS IN THE UNCAPPED AIRMASS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z ILX RAOB.  
CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS  
THIS REGION WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND NORTHWARD MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT, STUNTING STORM INTENSITY WITH NORTHERN EXTENT.  
  
FARTHER SOUTH, A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS. AN EML  
ACROSS THIS REGION (SAMPLED BY THE KLZK 12Z RAOB) SHOULD PERMIT MORE  
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL HEATING. CURRENTLY THERE IS A DRIER SURFACE AIRMASS  
IN THIS REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCV WHICH HAS SINCE MOVED  
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. HOWEVER, NORTHWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE  
ADVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO SOUTHERN  
ARKANSAS AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS IN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI.   
  
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE BI-MODAL. THE  
ORGANIZING SQUALL LINE FROM THE OZARKS TO NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL  
ACCELERATE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL POSE A  
THREAT FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND QLCS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELL  
TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF  
THIS LINE DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY POSE THE  
GREATEST STRONG TORNADO THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSE  
TORNADO OR TWO. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE SHEAR  
IN THE LOWEST 1.5 KM WITH NEARLY UNIFORM FLOW IN THE CLOUD BEARING  
LAYER. THIS MAY REDUCE HYDROMETEOR VENTING IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS  
AND RESULT IN MESSIER UPDRAFTS AND HP SUPERCELL MODE. THIS COULD  
PARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE STRONG, BUT SHORTER TRACK, UPDRAFT HELICITY  
SWATHS SHOWN BY MOST 12Z CAM GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS, SOME  
LONGER TRACK STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND  
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST.   
  
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT WHERE  
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AS THE  
UPPER TROUGH MOVES AWAY.  
   
..PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST  
  
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM WESTERN  
MARYLAND/EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO CENTRAL  
NEW YORK. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE LOWER SIDE,  
BUT ENOUGH HEATING IS FORECAST FOR MLCAPE IN THE 500 TO 750 J/KG  
RANGE WITH SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES. THEREFORE, OCCASIONAL WEAKLY  
ROTATING UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION.  

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Way too much convective debris here today. NW Ohio never stood a chance with keeping the slight risk in place.

Getting some nice soaking rains in today though. Always a plus with the farmers. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Most of the moderate risk is cloud-free. You can see richer moisture in central MS in the form of cumulus slowly move north

Edited April 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Looks like today will bust for my area. Given the dynamics in place may have dodged a bullet 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Medina]

Too much blob

[ClicheVortex2014]

  Mesoscale Discussion 0476
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

   Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and
   Mid-Mississippi Valley.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 131732Z - 131930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Rapid destabilization is expected across portions of the
   Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley

   DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower
   Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV.
   However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly
   over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf
   moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is
   expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama.
   Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and
   northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it
   appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the
   convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly
   west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel
   around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around
   22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
   ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not
   only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall
   line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection
   to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are
   expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough
   advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the
   low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather
   hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential
   for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A
   tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours.

 

[Cincysnow]

 

[Iceresistance]

This is originally from April 4th, but one of my Teachers sent me this: