April 11-13, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[Iceresistance]

Just now, NebraskaEgg said:

There's a ton of lightning with this storm, near-constant looking outside. I'm almost certainly gonna lose power soon. Hopefully my weather station records the wind we get properly.

Are you going to try to film the lightning? I got denied today.

[ElectricStorm]

Cell in TX heading towards Calvert is starting to tighten up, may be about to produce

[Iceresistance]

The Line of Storms might make it to Wichita. @Ingyball

[NebraskaEgg]

5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Are you going to try to film the lightning? I got denied today.

I could try but it probably won't look too great. Wind is picking up too and if I unlock our screen door during this it might go flying lol

[ClicheVortex2014]

Getting some embedded circulations in NW IA

[NebraskaEgg]

Local news station is pointing out some small rotation a mile or two the north of me that might get tornado warned. If it does, it'll be north of me and very weak.

[Bman10]

Cc drop near Woodbine IA

[ClicheVortex2014]

HRRR looks ugly for tomorrow for N MS

Edited April 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Might be a brief spin up south of Omaha

[ClicheVortex2014]

 

[NebraskaEgg]

I'm not sure if the storm simply slowed down or not but the storm is still barely over us at this point. I'm not sure if this is actually the case or not, but it feels like the northern part of the line is moving faster than the part down here.

[NebraskaEgg]

Storm has mostly passed, still a lot of lightning, a lot of that being cloud to ground so it's kinda loud, but power is still on. Worst of it seems to have passed.

 

Interestingly, there is no wind now. My weather station is reading 0 mph and I'm pretty sure it's not a malfunction since the trees aren't moving at all either. Kinda creepy.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Mesoanalysis is picking up the convective overturning as a result of the intense MCS in Louisiana. Pretty cool.

[ClicheVortex2014]

My energy just hit a brick wall. Got a supercell in extreme SE MN with a BWER... possible tornado. Nasty MCS in N LA that's been producing numerous tornado warnings. Won't be surprised if SHV finds a cluster of tornadoes in their area.

Edited April 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Debris signature just popped up in extreme NE IA. 6200 feet agl so far. Likely strong tornado

Edit: 8200 feet now, possibly 12k feet

Edited April 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Gravity waves are radiating from both MCSs

Edited April 13, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

49 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Debris signature just popped up in extreme NE IA. 6200 feet agl so far. Likely strong tornado

Edit: 8200 feet now, possibly 12k feet

there was a debris signature at Spring Valley MN maybe 0410z

[ElectricStorm]

This is from earlier and wow. Even though I'm a bit disappointed I didn't get any storms around here, the shots from chasers today have been amazing. And it appears all the strong tornadoes avoided populated areas which is always great to see. 

 

[Chinook]

There are some huge possibilities for updraft helicity tracks tomorrow. When I say that, I mean several models show updraft helicity tracks getting into southwest Indiana, for all you Midwest folks out there. The HREF viewer web page is just an absolutely useful tool for looking at various weather forecasts. I just wish we had a true ensemble of 8 or more high-resolution models. (That actually used to exist, but I think NCAR lost funding or cancelled it.)

 

[ElectricStorm]

13 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

This is from earlier and wow. Even though I'm a bit disappointed I didn't get any storms around here, the shots from chasers today have been amazing. And it appears all the strong tornadoes avoided populated areas which is always great to see. 

 

Unfortunately this appears it actually wasn't the case. Seeing some pretty bad damage pics from the TX tornado on twitter. Praying for everyone affected down there

[ClicheVortex2014]

Severe tstorm warning for the same area that's gonna have a moderate risk for tornadoes this afternoon. Thankfully the squall is weaker than it was earlier. 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

New day 1 mentions potential for EF3+ tornadoes

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT WED APR 13 2022  
  
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TODAY ACROSS A LARGE  
PART OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST,  
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH SOME STRONG,  
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SIGNIFICANT, AND  
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  
   
..LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, AS A 90 TO 100 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET  
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE  
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE  
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A CONVECTIVE  
LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND  
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP  
DURING THE MORNING AHEAD OF THE LINE FROM THE ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD  
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP EARLY IN THE DAY, AND RAMP UP QUICKLY DURING THE MID TO LATE  
MORNING AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  
  
BY MIDDAY, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FROM  
NORTHERN LOUISIANA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS,  
WHERE MODEL FORECASTS HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.  
THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE STRONG  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO FAR  
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY 20Z SHOW LOADED GUN SOUNDINGS WITH A SHALLOW  
CAPPING INVERSION, 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE, AND 0-3  
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 400 TO 500 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD BE VERY  
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF  
THE APPROACHING SQUALL-LINE SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK  
STRONG TORNADOES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE MID  
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND FAR  
WESTERN TENNESSEE, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR AN EF3+ TORNADO,  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST DOMINATING STORM THAT OCCURS. SUPERCELLS  
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
HAILSTONES OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE  
INTENSE SUPERCELLS. AS THE SQUALL-LINE FURTHER WEST ORGANIZES AND  
INTENSIFIES, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME LIKELY  
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME WIND GUSTS OF OVER 65 KNOTS MAY  
OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE AND FASTER MOVING PARTS OF THE LINE.  
  
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE  
AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, WHERE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY. THE  
WIND-DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE  
ISOLATED DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING, AS THE SQUALL-LINE  
ENCOUNTERS WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE EAST.  
   
..MIDWEST/LOWER OHIO VALLEY  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS TODAY AS AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT DURING THE  
DAY AS A 90 TO 100 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL JET, A CORRIDOR  
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND  
WESTERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY  
DEVELOP ABOUT THAT TIME ALONG A COLD FRONT FURTHER WEST. THESE  
STORMS WILL LIKELY OBTAIN A WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THE  
CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO A SQUALL LINE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH ALL  
STORMS MERGING INTO A SEVERE MCS BY EARLY EVENING.  
  
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT  
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE  
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH A  
TORNADO THREAT, LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 20Z ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR  
WESTERN KENTUCKY HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 1200 TO 1800 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6  
KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN  
MARKEDLY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PIVOTS  
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR  
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IN THE 200  
TO 300 M2/S2 RANGE SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.  
SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.  
FURTHER WEST, THE SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY  
INTENSIFY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD  
WIND DAMAGE APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE MORE INTENSE PARTS OF THE SQUALL  
LINE. LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE  
LINE. THE WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID EVENING  
AS THE LINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY, WITH THE  
SEVERE THREAT EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED FURTHER TO THE EAST.  
   
..NORTHEAST  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. BENEATH THE RIDGE, AN AXIS OF WEAK  
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEW  
YORK INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE  
ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR  
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME MAXIMIZED  
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THAT  
TIME SUGGEST THAT MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS  
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A  
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ANY CELL THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE  
WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL  
FOR A BRIEF TIME NEAR PEAK HEATING.  

 

[Medina]

Maybe Ohio can finally get a thunderstorm

[Iceresistance]

I still have hope for storms, the HRRR is unusually consistent with storms blowing up over Pott. County in the next 3-5 hours

 

EDIT: Next 1-4 hours now

Edited April 13, 2022 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

Rained at the house briefly, and the storms got better further south of me. 😒