Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ingyball said: 21z GFS soundings near Wichita and Topeka. In this case I would say storm growth would struggle early on in southern Kansas, 34kt effective shear is fairly marginal. By 0z there's better support further south, would be lightly capped, but wouldn't take much with the dryline just west. For Topkea Model precip maps aren't showing anything right now, but part of me wonders if we put in a bit too much faith in them. I've been burned a few times both ways by just looking at that (before I was a forecaster thankfully). I'm sort of interested to see how they perform in that regard assuming these modeled soundings are actually correct and we don't see a monster cap on Topeka's upper air sounding at 0z. What about further south like Wichita, Enid, OKC, & Norman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Brief spin up on Reed's stream a few minutes ago, didn't last long. Storm appears to be cycling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Heard reports of a large tornado on the ground near Charleston, AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Iceresistance said: Heard reports of a large tornado on the ground near Charleston, AR Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 532 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ARC071-083-112300- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-220411T2300Z/ Logan AR-Johnson AR- 532 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL LOGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES... At 531 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Branch, or near Charleston, and is moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Paris... Subiaco... Ratcliff... Hinkle... Caulksville... Wilkins... Roseville... Carbon City... Driggs... Chismville... Corley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) My parents made it back to Ozark safely. They drove through some hail and my mom said she saw a wide funnel cloud like 10-20 mins ago Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 11, 2022 Gonna be a busy evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 I can see the storms to the South & Southeast, they already look Supercellular from my POV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) Supercell behind it has a tornado on the ground as well. Edit: never mind, that's the old warning Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 23 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Heard reports of a large tornado on the ground near Charleston, AR prelim tornado report at 2217z (radar is 2212z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) 27 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: My parents made it back to Ozark safely. They drove through some hail and my mom said she saw a wide funnel cloud like 10-20 mins ago My dad now admits he saw a tornado. I'm kinda salty right now. Edited April 11, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 The Supercells are weakening, odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 3-inch hail has been confirmed in Charleston, AR Originally thought to be Baseball sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 new tornado report at 2320z, fairly close to other tornado report (about 12 miles east of other report a while ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) Confirmed tornado over Scranton AR. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ARC071-083-112345- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0035.000000T0000Z-220411T2345Z/ Logan AR-Johnson AR- 634 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES... At 633 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Scranton, or 7 miles south of Clarksville, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Clarksville... Paris... Lamar... Knoxville... Subiaco... Hartman... Scranton... Hoyt... Woodland... Hinkle... Spadra... Tokalon... Lake Dardanelle... Coal Hill... Morrison Bluff... New Spadra... Roseville... Dublin... Ludwig... Union City... This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 49 and 69. Edited April 11, 2022 by snowlover2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: You mean Arkansas? Yeah i edited it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 11, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 11, 2022 Mesoscale Discussion 0450 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Areas affected...parts of western Arkansas...southeastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108... Valid 112346Z - 120115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 108 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW108. Supercells capable of all hazards will continue east-northeast into WW107. DISCUSSION...Regional radar and surface analysis showed several supercells ongoing across southeastern Oklahoma in the vicinity of a subtle warm front lifting through the ArkLaTex. Ahead of these storms the airmass remain warm, moist, and unstable with low to mid 60s F dewpoints and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Regional VWPs show 40-50 kt of effective shear which will continue to support updraft organization/rotation as these storms move east-northeastward. In addition to the favorable mid-level shear, VWPs show increasingly large low-level hodographs with eastward extent. Given the favorable mode and the expected increase in 0-1km ESRH with the developing nocturnal low-level jet, low-level mesocyclone strengthen and the subsequent tornado threat may increase as storms move out of WW108 into WW107. Otherwise, these supercells remain capable of producing large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Latest radar and visible imagery also show several attempts at discrete warm sector Ci across far southeastern OK and western AR. Likely driven by subtle confluence near the aforementioned lifting warm front, any supercells able to become established within the free warm sector would likely pose a risk for tornadoes this evening given STP values of 3-4 from the latest SPC mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 This cell in OK needs to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 Confirmed tornado near Knoxville AR. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Little Rock AR 701 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ARC071-083-115-120030- /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-220412T0030Z/ Logan AR-Johnson AR-Pope AR- 701 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND WEST CENTRAL POPE COUNTIES... At 700 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Knoxville, or 10 miles southeast of Clarksville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Lamar... London... Knoxville... Holman... Lake Dardanelle... Augsburg... Lutherville... Piney Bay Recreation Area... This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 61 and 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: What about further south like Wichita, Enid, OKC, & Norman? Much more likely to be capped in Oklahoma as you start getting away from the surface low. Could definitely see the cap holding there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bman10 said: This cell in OK needs to be watched It’s tor warned now. Could be trouble if it get it’s act together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 12, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 12, 2022 Almost every supercell is tornado warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 12, 2022 Don't like that right turn with that other storm south of Knoxville, could try to make an approach towards Little Rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) Conway may get clobbered by a Supercell with Tennis Ball sized hail. (It's not tornado-warned yet) Edited April 12, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 12, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 12, 2022 (edited) Can't quite call this a precursor event as it's a different system causing it, but this environment itself is going to advect northward so it could be a taste of what tomorrow could look like if the cap breaks. Edited April 12, 2022 by Ingyball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 12, 2022 Share Posted April 12, 2022 This tornado-warned storm at LeFlore Oklahoma seems to have two areas of rotation on the base velocity 1 and one area of rotation on base velocity 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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