Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 23, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, JayPSU said: I'm conflicted. I work for a university and would love the excuse to work from home, and/or, have the possibility of it outright closing. That said, that much ice is a big problem. Me, too. Music teacher and I have final rehearsals on Friday for my 2nd Grade concert that's next week. But I REALLY don't want to be driving in ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 23, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 23, 2022 Like @MesoscaleBanding said, the NAM (in this case the 3k) is acting like Kriss Kross. (Jump, jump!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: I do think that I-70 and north has more of a worry than us to the south when it comes to ZR. Though, if the surface cold is harder to shed than I am guessing, I will be quite wrong 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, RobB said: I do think that I-70 and north has more of a worry than us to the south when it comes to ZR. Though, if the surface cold is harder to shed than I am guessing, I will be quite wrong 🙂 Low level cold air can be so stubborn to get rid of, particularly with such a weak area of low pressure. I remember a situation like this when I was a kid living in Philly in 1994. All day long they said the temp would go above freezing and just never would budge. Not saying that will happen here, just that it can be stubborn. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, JayPSU said: Low level cold air can be so stubborn to get rid of, particularly with such a weak area of low pressure. I remember a situation like this when I was a kid living in Philly in 1994. All day long they said the temp would go above freezing and just never would budge. Not saying that will happen here, just that it can be stubborn. Agree 100%. I've seen these hang on. At least I am quite hopeful that the temps will at least be close. Better than 28 degrees or lower with ZR. Crossing fingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Like @MesoscaleBanding said, the NAM (in this case the 3k) is acting like Kriss Kross. (Jump, jump!) Gotta play it now 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Me, too. Music teacher and I have final rehearsals on Friday for my 2nd Grade concert that's next week. But I REALLY don't want to be driving in ice. Interesting! My wife is a high school teacher. She has parent/teacher conferences this week and is off on Friday. I am very jealous! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 23, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 23, 2022 All my teacher friends are all WHAT IS YOUR GUESS FOR AN ICE DAY ON FRIDAY and I'm all.. people.. the models can't make up their minds, so how am I supposed to? lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Even the FRAM is bad. Wow. That .54 is pretty close to me. No thanks! Even a quarter of that would be .15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: All my teacher friends are all WHAT IS YOUR GUESS FOR AN ICE DAY ON FRIDAY and I'm all.. people.. the models can't make up their minds, so how am I supposed to? lol. I'm Virtual AGAIN Tomorrow! I was supposed to take a Math test today, but it does not work with Virtual Learning very well, it's likely pushed back until Next Week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Big snowflakes coming down at my house! 13°F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 ILN latest. Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 348 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A mid level disturbance will bring a brief threat for freezing rain and snow over the northern Miami and Whitewater Valleys tonight, and west central Ohio. In response to a northeastward tracking and strengthening low pressure system, rain will overspread the region from the south on Thursday. The cold air in place along the I-70 corridor will result in a wintery mix as this moisture reaches the northern sections of the county warning area later Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Mid level shortwave energy streaming across the northwestern third of the CWA tonight will result in low chances of precipitation, but the chances are fairly equal in a snow/freezing rain threat hitting areas west and north of the Dayton metro area. The energy moves east and any precip should be finished by daybreak. Not confident enough to issue any headlines in this forecast package given model differences in placement and a few that are quite sparing in any qpf during this time frame. Low temps will drop to the low 20s in the northwest, mid 20s along the I-70 corridor, and upper 20s to around 30 elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thursday will start with rain overspreading the region from the south during the latter part of the day in response to a northward moving warm conveyor belt of air interacting with shortwave energy aloft on zonal wsw flow. This setup brings another round of widespread rain to the CWA overnight. Larger issue is the fact that the warm nose will overspread cold surface temperatures lingering over the northern third of the CWA. Freezing rain and sleet will occur along the I-70 corridor. A northeastward ejecting and strengthening surface low tracking towards the OH/WV border overnight will push the warm air north in the area from Columbus eastward, with a slight north push to the warm air westward towards Richmond, IN. An extended period of sleet, punctuated with freezing rain and snow is expected to occur overnight in this area. After midnight, the surface low will have translated to the northeast of the area and cold (and dry) air will be pulled in on northwest flow as it passes. This cold and dry air could result in some lingering freezing rain and drizzle over the bulk of the CWA but will likely result in a rapid change over to snow before ending early Friday morning. Friday itself should be dry as northwest flow cuts off any available moisture with high pressure strengthening over the Midwest. Highs Thursday will range from near freezing in the northwest to the lower 40s in the south. Overnight lows behind the front will drop to the mid 20s northwest, low 30s south and southeast. Friday will be cool and cloudy with highs in the 30s, much like today after yesterday`s rainfall event. The rain that occurs in the region will be on the order of a half inch to inch and a half. Focus of the highest totals (over a period of time) is in the southeast. This is the same area that was not hit as hard with yesterday`s rainfall. Given similar situations - long duration rainfall that is moderate to heavy at times, do not feel that flood watch was appropriate and that the primary effect of this system will be additional rises on area creeks and streams. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN latest. The lack of stronger wording is hopefully a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: ILN latest. Passing the buck to the overnight crew, I see 😂 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, MesoscaleBanding said: Passing the buck to the overnight crew, I see 😂 That's what I took out of it... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, RobB said: The lack of stronger wording is hopefully a good sign. They are such a dud regarding winter events. Very rarely do they show their hand regarding winter weather until it is too late. Seen them do it a million times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Passing the buck to the overnight crew, I see 😂 You know these forecasters hate borderline precip type/temperature issues 🙂 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 HREF mean. I don’t use use this much but I remember ILN quoting it in the past. 🤷🏻♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zumarat Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Passing the buck to the overnight crew, I see 😂 This highlighted sentence is the truth... In my backyard, the 18z GFS paints 8 of snow tomorrow night. 18Z NAM 3K shows 0 inches. I mean, we're only a day out... what could go wrong here? 🙈 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Columbusbuckeye Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, RobB said: You know these forecasters hate borderline precip type/temperature issues 🙂 No doubt. I certainly don't envy them in this situation. I do think it would be wise for them to at least set the expectation that there will be an area somewhere in the northern part of the forecast area that could approach high end advisory ice accumulations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, Columbusbuckeye said: No doubt. I certainly don't envy them in this situation. I do think it would be wise for them to at least set the expectation that there will be an area somewhere in the northern part of the forecast area that could approach high end advisory ice accumulations. A worthy point.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, zumarat said: This highlighted sentence is the truth... In my backyard, the 18z GFS paints 8 of snow tomorrow night. 18Z NAM 3K shows 0 inches. I mean, we're only a day out... what could go wrong here? 🙈 That is concerning tomorrow morning though and not tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) GFS gets some bonus points for being consistent regarding the freezing rain corridor. Not happy about that. Thankfully wind gusts aren't as strong as the previous would-be ice event. 20-30 mph gusts could still cause some issues but probably not long-lasting. Edited February 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now