CrazyINwx Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) I’ll take plain rain over freezing rain any day. Edited February 23, 2022 by CrazyINwx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 NOAA Weather Radio Live Streamshttps://www.weatherusa.net/radio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 249 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 Short Term...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 249 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 ...Initial Wave of Very Light Wintry Precip Likely Tonight... ...Second More Robust Wave Expected Late Thursday into Thursday Night... Continue to expect a subtle leading upper wave to slide through the Ohio Valley tonight into early Thursday along the northern periphery of the midlevel baroclinic zone. In the absence of more robust forcing and deeper profile saturation, continue to expect a very light QPF event, which may produce a dusting to a tenth or two of snow and perhaps some very light sleet or freezing rain across the far south near daybreak Thursday. Slightly concerned about potential for some freezing drizzle with some dry air in the mid to upper levels, and this will bear monitoring. With very light QPF and continued uncertainty with respect to precip types, durations, and amounts, expect that a headline is premature and may not be needed in any case, but will message potential for slick spots for Thursday morning commute in all available venues. The second, more organized system is still expected to develop over the lower Mississippi Delta/Gulf Coast region Thursday as the upper level wave ejects east/northeastward, but has trended slightly further south and east with travel through southern and eastern Kentucky late Thursday into Thursday night. This has led to a slightly less robust overrunning setup and a somewhat less substantial warm nose aloft. The upshot of this is that, while the overall transition zones are not that dissimilar to the previous forecast, there may be a bit more contribution from incompletely melted hydrometeors in this zone, perhaps leaning more towards sleet or heavily rimed snowflakes. That said, continued inconsistencies in saturation aloft suggest there may still be a freezing drizzle component at times as well, so icing will remain a threat. Northwestern/northern portions of the area continue to look likely to remain all snow throughout the event, with a transition zone of mixed precip along and either side of the I-70 corridor, and all rain south with the second wave Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, before passage of the surface low and a transition to cold advection in northwest flow allows all lingering precipitation to transition to snow late Thursday night before ending by daybreak. While an advisory may become necessary central and north for late Thursday into Thursday night, given continued uncertainty it would be premature at this time, particularly with a potential light wintry event to deal with first tonight. Total amounts at this time look to be in the 1-3 inch of snow range north of Indy, perhaps with isolated higher amounts far north, with around an inch of sleet/snow central and a half inch or less south. There will be potential in the transition zone for a tenth of an inch or less of ice. Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 249 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022 - Sleet/Snow mix changing to Snow Thursday Night. - Mainly dry with seasonable temperatures Friday afternoon through Tuesday. Thursday Night and Early Friday...A strong weather system will be pushing toward Indiana on Thursday Night. Models shows a moderate upper wave over the Mississippi Valley pushing toward Indiana within the flow aloft. Strong lift appears to be generated ahead of this wave as it pushes toward Indiana on Thursday night and early Friday...before exiting on Friday afternoon. An associated surface low is expected to push across Western KY to West Virgina as these upper support features pass. A strong temperature gradient as well as strong lower level cyclonic flow remains in place as the surface low passes to our south. This will place central Indiana in a favorable position for precipitation on the NW side of the surface low. Forecast soundings on Thursday night into Friday mainly remain below freezing in locations along and north of I-70. Further south forecast soundings show more warm air in place which should allow precip to fall as rain initially on Friday night before changing to snow on Friday. In between these two areas a sleet/freezing rain mix area will be in place...gradually moving SE through the night as the surface low departs to the east. Forecast soundings show pwats near 0.6 which should be a moderate precip event. Thus with favorable moisture and dynamics in place will be using near 100 pops. Tricky part where will be the location of the snow/Sleet/FZRA line...which may be somewhere along a Sullivan...BMG...Greensburg line. Overall, confidence will be high for an event and timing of said event...but confidence will be low on precise locations of that Rain/snow line. Eventually...an advisory may be required to handle this winter precip event. Friday Afternoon through Sunday...Models show the upper support departing the area to the east on Friday afternoon as a large area of surface high pressure builds across Indiana it its wake. By Saturday afternoon the surface high will stretch from the Ohio Valley to the western plains...providing dry but cool weather. A weak upper system is suggested to push across Indiana on Saturday night into Sunday...but with little in the way of moisture available due to the large surface high...will just trend this toward an increase in cloud cover. Overall the weekend should start on a partly cloudy and cold note...with the arrival of more clouds on Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures should slowly moderate through Sunday as surface flow gradually becomes more southwesterly. Monday and Tuesday...Dry and warmer weather will continue to be expected as stronger ridging aloft over the plains is depicted to build east across the Ohio valley...and warmer souther flow develops within the lower levels as the previously mentioned high slides eastward. Thus will continue to trend toward a partly cloudy sky here along with warming temps given our southerly flow. Edited February 23, 2022 by TheBlizzardOf1978 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 9z RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 6z hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Gonna be close here. Poor iln. I think they go broad with advisories around here and shift headlines last minute. We know warm air wins out around here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 For those wondering 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Sref probabilities finally took a stand towards FZ rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 39 minutes ago, junior said: Gonna be close here. Poor iln. I think they go broad with advisories around here and shift headlines last minute. We know warm air wins out around here. Seems warranted. Get the general warning out there with the caveat that these will shrink as we approach zero hour. Nigh impossible to nail down surface cold press in ice potential area especially with southern edge. Edited February 23, 2022 by RobB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post snowman79 Posted February 23, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted February 23, 2022 Happy to find this new site!! I lurked around (the other site) learning and appreciating all the weather insight. I love winter weather and all the forecasting challenges it presents especially living in SW OH. You all are awesome, knowledgable and I've learned a lot. It was like crickets on that other site after PM antics. Great job on setting this site up. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Just now, snowman79 said: Happy to find this new site!! I lurked around (the other site) learning and appreciating all the weather insight. I love winter weather and all the forecasting challenges it presents especially living in SW OH. You all are awesome, knowledgable and I've learned a lot. It was like crickets on that other site after PM antics. Great job on setting this site up. A big welcome to ya! 🤘 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 25 minutes ago, RobB said: A big welcome to ya! 🤘 I second that. This is a great place. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUWx2 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 ILN siding with the GFS (and not the Euro) and seemingly will issue WWAs later today or tomorrow morning. Thinking .10” of ice with a few flakes on top Friday morning. AFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, BoroBuckeye said: Thoughts on driving up 71 from Columbus to Erie Friday morning? I know the models have precip tapering off but more curious on people’s experience with the interstate and this amount of snow: IMO, if you make it up to NE OH by mid to late morning I don't think it should be problematic. Lots of plows/crews up here and they prioritize the interstates first as they do everywhere. Whatever falls Thursday night should be all snow by Friday morning but rates should be light enough so the crews shouldn't have a problem keeping up. And Friday is a "work day" so with that traffic and with temps in mid-upper 20's should allow the salt to do its job just fine. Have a safe trip and beep on the way by. Edited February 23, 2022 by Hiramite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlizzardOf1978 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2022 CLE's morning update. And ILN's AM Statewide view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudy_jake Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) Looks like wpc is thinking rain makes it close to I-70. Its gonna be a close one like always in central and sw ohio. Sad thing is normally that's a hella good track for snow in ohio.... Edited February 23, 2022 by cloudy_jake 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 This system is bringing snow this morning to parts of northern Arizona and even a few flakes near Vegas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 DTX didn’t even bother to do a snow map, just highlighted a general 1-3” across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jpfalcon Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 1 minute ago, easton229 said: DTX didn’t even bother to do a snow map, just highlighted a general 1-3” across the area. WTOL in Toledo has been trying to make this system bigger than it needs to be. Honestly a nuisance type system that probably won't even prompt headlines for DTX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 23, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 23, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 (edited) It's Sleeting like crazy outside right now, I can hear it from my Bedroom Window, ThunderSleet has been Reported & confirmed in Southern Oklahoma, & it's 13°F The wind is not helping any with the Sleet, sounds like a lot of Pea-Sized Hail smacking into the Window at once at some points. Edited February 23, 2022 by Iceresistance 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: It's Sleeting like crazy outside right now, I can hear it from my Bedroom Window, ThunderSleet has been confirmed in Southern Oklahoma, & it's 13°F Even though it's nasty icy crap that is some impressive winter weather. We're gonna need some video of the thundersleet when you get a chance. That is so cool. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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