snowlover2 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 ILN latest Quote .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Temperatures will rise some on Thursday, so any wintry mix early on will transition to a chance of rain/snow. Highs will range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south. A fast-moving s/wv is still poised to move quickly west to east across the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. This feature will perturb a wave of low pressure which will track northeast through the middle and upper Ohio Valley. As it does, a decent shot of moisture and lift on a fairly strong low level jet/convergence zone will spread pcpn quickly northeast from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Pcpn will then continue overnight, eventually tapering off from west to east on Friday morning. Models have trended a little warmer not only near the surface but aloft as well. As a result, the wintry mix zone is now expected to be along/near the I-70 corridor with mainly snow across far west central Ohio. Farther south, mainly rain will occur Thursday night, with heavier rain possible across our southeast zones. Snow/sleet accumulations along/near the I-70 corridor will be an inch or less, with perhaps one to two tenths of ice accretion. Farther north, some mix is possible, but snow is expected to be the main p-type. Snow accumulations will range from 1 to 3 inches. Overall, this looks like an advisory winter situation in terms of impacts. Will continue to make mention of all hazards in the HWO. Lows Thursday night will range from the lower 20s northwest to near 40 far southeast. Not much rise is expected on Friday with post CAA air. Highs on Friday will range from near 30 northwest to the lower 40s southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 NAM and 3km last frame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, mafa said: ICON is a cold rain Pretty major icing along and north of 70 this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Definitely how far south low level cold will penetrate for frozen precip. Upper level warmth seems pretty locked overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 22, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, mafa said: ICON is a cold rain Icon doesn’t show icing on TT.. it’s a gross mix on that model too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidMichiganWx Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 This system really feels like the beginning of the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, RobB said: Definitely how far south low level cold will penetrate for frozen precip. Upper level warmth seems pretty locked overall. I agree. 850s are too warm for snow here, shoot even sleet with the main onslaught. Its either rain or ZR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, junior said: I agree. 850s are too warm for snow here, shoot even sleet with the main onslaught. Its either rain or ZR. Completely agree 🤘 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, MidMichiganWx said: This system really feels like the beginning of the end of winter. Yeah I agree, thats why I'm even more entrenched in embracing ice. Looking at the long range. This takes us deep in to "lotto storm" time-frame around here. Whatever falls usually lasts 2-3 days max. March around here is more snowy than the public thinks so its hilarious every year when people go up in arms every time it snows🤦♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easton229 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 DTX suggesting this will be a 1-3” or 2-4” type event for SEMI which lines up with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Yeah I agree, thats why I'm even more entrenched in embracing ice. Looking at the long range. This takes us deep in to "lotto storm" time-frame around here. Whatever falls usually lasts 2-3 days max. March around here is more snowy than the public thinks so its hilarious every year when people go up in arms every time it snows🤦♂️ The March 2008 blizzard where we got 20" lasted exactly one week. Incredible how fast it was gone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Not sure what the deal is with the profiles on the UK and ECM around here but there are still some huge discrepancies in models, both thermals and total QPF. Now that the NAM/3KM look more like the GFS im inclined to buy the GFS again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 ILX thinking this will be a 2-4" event north of I-70 here with 1-3" south of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 ILN just updated my grid forecast....absolutely no mention of freezing rain?!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said: ILN just updated my grid forecast....absolutely no mention of freezing rain?!!! I wonder if those are computer generated somehow. I tend to ignore them either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, RobB said: I wonder if those are computer generated somehow. I tend to ignore them either way. I agree. They definitely seem weird sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, RobB said: I wonder if those are computer generated somehow. I tend to ignore them either way. Yep - I'm almost certain they are- they seem to change after every new model cycle & are rarely accurate. I'm surprised NWS uses/puts out such subpar data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 minute ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Yep - I'm almost certain they are- they seem to change after every new model cycle & are rarely accurate. I'm surprised NWS uses/puts out such subpar data. Agreed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 18z GFS looking warmer with surface temps during the day on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Weird how we've completely lost the Thursday morning wave....this storm seems to be finding every way possible to be a disappointment😆 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, RobB said: I wonder if those are computer generated somehow. I tend to ignore them either way. Maybe someone on here can give some insight. I would like to know how the point&click forecasts as well as the maps are generated. I brief .ppt/slide show posted by one of the WFOs would be great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 SREF's are pretty meager. I'll probably start tonight after the 21Z for locations that are SREFed to get at least 1" of snow. Gotta break in the new site!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Weird how we've completely lost the Thursday morning wave....this storm seems to be finding every way possible to be a disappointment😆 But Oklahoma is going to get absolutely hammered (And btw, Virtual Learning Tomorrow unless there are Power Outages) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 6 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Yep - I'm almost certain they are- they seem to change after every new model cycle & are rarely accurate. I'm surprised NWS uses/puts out such subpar data. They actually mention in the AFD their north and western counties staying all snow which is absolutely bogus unless they buy the UK and 12z ecm. Hey id love all snow but come on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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