Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 I'm going to interpret this shading to mean a 39.9% chance of happening across the southern Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andino Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 My area is calling for 60% chance for .25 - .50 ice and 1-3 snow. This could be a recipe for disaster. I'm 7 miles south of Indy. I hope it shifts enough south to not have even the low end of that prediction of the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 22, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2022 Non-event for the i70 corridor on the 6z Euro. Seems like the American models are adamant about the colder air (and icing). This is backed up with the Icon, the Canadian, and the UKMet (which, if I remember, shows ice as snow?). The Euro makes everything warmer and further North. My guess is that it's an outlier at this point? Though as @Hiramite showed, the current preference is for the Euro ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 22, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2022 Also.. Tropical Tidbits is currently down (and has been for awhile). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 ILN’s morning thoughts: Some weak mid level energy will push east across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As it does, low level flow will back a bit more to the southwest and lead to a period of isentropic lift across our area later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will lead to an increasing chance of precipitation with the highest pops (categorical) expected across our southern areas. As the precipitation starts, temperatures will range from the mid 20s in the north to the lower 30s along and south of the Ohio River. With some warmer air moving in off of the surface, this will result in the potential for some mixed pcpn, mainly across southern portions of our area, while pcpn will remain mainly snow across our north. Pcpn amounts with this initial wave look to be on the lighter side so expect only the potential for some minor ice and snow accumulations. A stronger mid level short wave will approach from the west later in the day on Thursday and push east across the region Thursday night into Friday morning. This will allow for a developing low pressure system over the western Tennessee Valley Thursday afternoon to lift northeast into the upper Ohio Valley through Friday morning. As it does, widespread pcpn will overspread our area later Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night. Thermal fields remain somewhat tricky for this wave. With temperatures at or below freezing across our far northwest, pcpn should remain mainly snow there. However, readings across our south will be in the mid 30s to possibly lower 40s, leading to mainly rain for those areas. We will then end up with a transition zone of mixed pcpn somewhere across central portions of our area, with the mixed pcpn axis then shifting slowly south into Thursday night as some cooler air moves in from the northwest. Right now it looks like snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible across our north (along and north of I-70). The potential for a more significant period of sleet and freezing rain will exist across central portions of our area, with some ice amounts of a tenth of an inch or so possible (mainly along and to the south of I-70). Farther south along and south of the Ohio River, pcpn should remain mainly rain before possibly ending as a brief period of snow heading into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 (edited) The ECM and GFS seem like respective outliers in each of their solutions with everything else falling in between. Seems like a good time to blend it all together. Can anyone post the NBM and EPS ice map Edited February 22, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 22, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: The ECM and GFS seem like respective outliers in each of their solutions with everything else falling in between. Seems like a good time to blend it all together. Anyone of the NBM I gotchoo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Man, those NAM and GFS ice maps are nearly identical! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Tropical TidBits is back up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 22, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Also.. Tropical Tidbits is currently down (and has been for awhile). And it's back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: I gotchoo. Blend snow map please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 22, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2022 16 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Blend snow map please. Gotchoo, too. And updated for 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudy_jake Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Im pulling for the Euro at this point I don't need no Ice! Or as little as possible. Non weather related but life just took a hard turn... Like for real... Ill keep it short wife's been in a stage 4 cancer battle for the past 4 years. She's taken an unexpected turn for the worst, she's in the hospital now probably going to hospice care soon.... Any other time I would be excited for some frozen precipitation. Not now though.... 😒 Okay back on topic! What's the timeframe of the ice potential? Thursday into Friday morning? When do you think the models should start to nail down on the amount's as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Looks to me to be an advisory event along the I 70 corridor based on the ILN graphics. At this point please just be plain rain and bring on the warmth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted February 22, 2022 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, cloudy_jake said: Im pulling for the Euro at this point I don't need no Ice! Or as little as possible. Non weather related but life just took a hard turn... Like for real... Ill keep it short wife's been in a stage 4 cancer battle for the past 4 years. She's taken an unexpected turn for the worst, she's in the hospital now probably going to hospice care soon.... Any other time I would be excited for some frozen precipitation. Not now though.... 😒 Okay back on topic! What's the timeframe of the ice potential? Thursday into Friday morning? When do you think the models should start to nail down on the amount's as well? I am so sorry about your wife. Will pray for her (and you/your family). The worst of it looks to be early Thursday evening into Friday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted February 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted February 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, cloudy_jake said: Im pulling for the Euro at this point I don't need no Ice! Or as little as possible. Non weather related but life just took a hard turn... Like for real... Ill keep it short wife's been in a stage 4 cancer battle for the past 4 years. She's taken an unexpected turn for the worst, she's in the hospital now probably going to hospice care soon.... Any other time I would be excited for some frozen precipitation. Not now though.... 😒 Okay back on topic! What's the timeframe of the ice potential? Thursday into Friday morning? When do you think the models should start to nail down on the amount's as well? This really puts things in perspective. So sorry to hear that news and I wish you and your wife all the best. Our thoughts and prayers for you and your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 11 minutes ago, cloudy_jake said: Im pulling for the Euro at this point I don't need no Ice! Or as little as possible. Non weather related but life just took a hard turn... Like for real... Ill keep it short wife's been in a stage 4 cancer battle for the past 4 years. She's taken an unexpected turn for the worst, she's in the hospital now probably going to hospice care soon.... Any other time I would be excited for some frozen precipitation. Not now though.... 😒 Okay back on topic! What's the timeframe of the ice potential? Thursday into Friday morning? When do you think the models should start to nail down on the amount's as well? Many, many, prayers my friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, cloudy_jake said: Im pulling for the Euro at this point I don't need no Ice! Or as little as possible. Non weather related but life just took a hard turn... Like for real... Ill keep it short wife's been in a stage 4 cancer battle for the past 4 years. She's taken an unexpected turn for the worst, she's in the hospital now probably going to hospice care soon.... Any other time I would be excited for some frozen precipitation. Not now though.... 😒 Okay back on topic! What's the timeframe of the ice potential? Thursday into Friday morning? When do you think the models should start to nail down on the amount's as well? This hits home, I have been traveling back and forth from FL the last 12 months helping my step father fight stage 4 cancer. It's humbling...and hard to watch at times. We are in a upswing of good news on the roller coaster ride but I understand the lows your also going through. Thoughts are with you and your family. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beaver56 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: This hits home, I have been traveling back and forth from FL the last 12 months helping my step father fight stage 4 cancer. It's humbling...and hard to watch at times. We are in a upswing of good news on the roller coaster ride but I understand the lows your also going through. Thoughts are with you and your family. My mom has been in stage 4 for almost 7 years. She has been blessed, but man does she fight. A true inspiration for my kids to see! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRR Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 IND: Another Mid-Late Week Likely to Feature a Variety of Impactful Winter Weather... Primary focus during the long term period is on yet another potentially impactful winter system following what has been the prevailing storm track so far this month, up the Ohio Valley, not atypical for a late La Nina winter. A strong (1040+ mb) Arctic high in place across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes looks to provide another shallow cold airmass across the region, which, when combined with the fairly strongly sloped baroclinic zone expected to be off to the south, the development of another surface low in a seasonably preferential location over the Mississippi Delta/Gulf Coast in response to another upper level trough ejecting from the Four Corners region, and the aforementioned prevailing storm track which continues to be broadly advertised by guidance, sets the stage for good overrunning conditions and thus a variety of precipitation types yet again across central Indiana. Light wintry precipitation may begin as early as Wednesday night in association with a very subtle initial shortwave riding along the midlevel baroclinic zone with upward motion enhanced by its presence in the right entrance region of a robust WSWly upper level jet streak. This initial wave appears likely to be a low QPF nuisance event more than anything, with the somewhat more substantial threat likely to come late Thursday into Thursday night. As the surface low develops and pushes northeastward into central and eastern Kentucky late Thursday into Thursday night, the baroclinic zone will move back to the north, and fairly substantial overrunning will develop which will be likely to set up a zone of freezing rain/sleet somewhere across central Indiana, most likely at this point along and 25 miles either side of the I-70 corridor, with precipitation remaining largely frozen over northern areas, and southern areas appearing likely to warm enough to transition to all rain for a significant proportion of the main event. As the low continues northeast Friday night and beyond, high pressure will drop into the area behind it and any remaining liquid or freezing precipitation will transition to snow before coming to an end by daybreak Friday. All of the above is low-moderate confidence at best at this point given the extreme sensitivity of precipitation type to subtle shifts in storm track and very minor changes in temperature profiles, particularly 3-4 days out, not to mention a variety of ensemble solutions. That said, the current NBM initialized forecast represents a reasonable consensus of many of these ensemble members and see little reason to deviate from it at this point. Despite a couple of upper waves moving around the periphery of the area during the rest of the long term period, will keep a dry forecast for the remainder of the period at this time with significant moisture concerns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 I've warned the School about the Ice at my area, currently under a Winter Storm Watch for this. I've told them that "I strongly recommend not having School Wednesday, Thursday, & possibly Friday" "Friday highly depends on the outcome of Wednesday's & Thursday's event." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Wave #1 now non-existent north of the Ohio River on the 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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