Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 30, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 30, 2022 I've had over a inch here pretty windy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Tornado warning in S IL east of Mt. Vernon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) ILN AFD mentions the potential for 57 mph winds tonight... The other concern is non-convective wind potential. As the central Illinois low moves to Michigan and deepens considerably to a sub 980mb cyclone, pressure falls and mass response will increase dramatically just ahead of the convective line. Low level jet at 850mb surges past 80kts, and dry sub-cloud layers suggest a somewhat favorable lapse rate that could aid in some of this getting to the surface outside of showers. Confidence in this is not high, but there is considerable upside/potential if the lowest 1km lapse rate remains favorable for mixing in the overnight. If it does...and some NWP forecast soundings suggest it will (HRRR/GFS, etc) there could be some strong (approaching 50kt) wind gusts both immediately ahead of the showers, and immediately in their wake. Edited March 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Round and round? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 81 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 710 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 710 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Fast-moving linearly organized bands of showers/thunderstorms will continue northeastward across the region this evening. While moisture and instability will become more limited with east/northeastward extent, very strong deep-layer/low-level winds will support the possibility of convectively enhanced wind damage even where minimal instability exists. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Bloomington IN to 35 miles southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...WW 78...WW 79...WW 80... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Guyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Areas affected...portions of the middle Gulf Coast Concerning...Tornado Watch 80... Valid 302319Z - 310045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 80 continues. SUMMARY...A mature QLCS with a history of damaging winds and tornadoes will continue east this evening. Very strong shear and sufficient buoyancy will continue to support the risk for severe wind gusts (some 70+ mph) and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...As of 2315 UTC, regional radar imagery showed an expansive QLCS moving quickly eastward across the middle Gulf Coast and MS River Valley. To the east of the squall line, regional VWPS were sampling an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet with 1km flow near 60 kts. Expansive cloud cover and meager surface moisture have so far limited buoyancy across much of southeastern MS, southwestern AL. However, as the low-level jet strengthens across this area ahead of approaching upper level ascent, rapid airmass modification is expected to result in sufficient destabilization for a continued severe risk. Middle and upper 60s F surface dewpoints just offshore should be quickly advected inland supporting approx 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the squall line. The strong low-level jet will also continue enlarge hodographs with 400-500 m2/s2 of ESRH expected. The potent low-level shear and sufficient buoyancy will support a risk for line-embedded supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/30/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) storm reports since 7:01 am central time, including all types (non-convective wind reports are shown as "wind" or "wind damage," exactly the same symbols as convective wind reports). Edited March 30, 2022 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Whoa new tor watch for AL with 80/70 probs. Wasn't expecting that. That's nearly PDS level... Goes all the way until 4am too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 2 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Whoa new tor watch for AL with 80/70 probs. Wasn't expecting that. That's nearly PDS level... Goes all the way until 4am too I've seen PDS issued with 80/60. So there's no set threshold... it's SPC's and probably the impacted WFO's judgement as to whether they're expecting particularly long-lived/violent tornadoes. Going into today I wasn't expecting the highest probabilities of the day to come at this time of day but after this MCD, it makes sense. Mesoscale Discussion 0363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Areas affected...southeast LA...far southern MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 78... Valid 302331Z - 310130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78 continues. SUMMARY...Monitoring for a downscale evolution from squall line to supercell across southeast LA into far southern MS this evening. If supercell development occurs and becomes sustained, the tornado risk for southeast LA into far southern MS would likely be heightened/most focused with any supercell. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level dryslot punching into the lower MS Valley as a shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted over the Arklatex. A 130 kt jet 250 mb streak centered over south TX will continue to move towards the central Gulf Coast region this evening and become more favorable for the evacuation of hydrometeors near updrafts, potentially favoring more cellular modes versus linear. Surface analysis indicates rich low-level moisture has inundated southeast LA into the MS/AL gulf coast with 68-70 deg F dewpoints observed at 6pm CDT. Greater buoyancy resides across southeast LA into the coastal counties of southern MS/AL where 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is indicated by 6pm RAP-based SPC objective analysis fields. The combination of greater buoyancy and long hodographs will probably favor some transition to from primarily linear to a mix of linear and cellular modes. Higher echo tops noted per KLIX imagery suggests this possible scenario could evolve over the next few hours. The tornado risk will likely increase in tandem as the evolution of storms transitions to more cellular. Damaging gusts will also accompany the stronger storms. Edited March 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Just now, OKwx_2001 said: Whoa new tor watch for AL with 80/70 probs. Wasn't expecting that. That's nearly PDS level... Goes all the way until 4am too I've been wondering about this region since last night, looks like storm mode could favor semi/discrete mode in this area later tonight, more of a broken line. Not a whole lot of confirmed tornado reports so far today but the shear is just about as strong as it ever gets so I won't be surprised if we end up with a few dozen more reports by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I've seen PDS issued with 80/60. So there's no set threshold... it's SPC's judgement as to whether they're expecting particularly long-lived/violent tornadoes. Going into today I wasn't expecting the highest probabilities of the day to come at this time of day but after this MCD, it makes sense. Mesoscale Discussion 0363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Areas affected...southeast LA...far southern MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 78... Valid 302331Z - 310130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78 continues. SUMMARY...Monitoring for a downscale evolution from squall line to supercell across southeast LA into far southern MS this evening. If supercell development occurs and becomes sustained, the tornado risk for southeast LA into far southern MS would likely be heightened/most focused with any supercell. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a mid-level dryslot punching into the lower MS Valley as a shortwave trough becomes negatively tilted over the Arklatex. A 130 kt jet 250 mb streak centered over south TX will continue to move towards the central Gulf Coast region this evening and become more favorable for the evacuation of hydrometeors near updrafts, potentially favoring more cellular modes versus linear. Surface analysis indicates rich low-level moisture has inundated southeast LA into the MS/AL gulf coast with 68-70 deg F dewpoints observed at 6pm CDT. Greater buoyancy resides across southeast LA into the coastal counties of southern MS/AL where 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is indicated by 6pm RAP-based SPC objective analysis fields. The combination of greater buoyancy and long hodographs will probably favor some transition to from primarily linear to a mix of linear and cellular modes. Higher echo tops noted per KLIX imagery suggests this possible scenario could evolve over the next few hours. The tornado risk will likely increase in tandem as the evolution of storms transitions to more cellular. Damaging gusts will also accompany the stronger storms. Hmm I've always thought 80 sig was the threshold at least in the last few years. I guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: I've been wondering about this region since last night, looks like storm mode could favor semi/discrete mode in this area later tonight, more of a broken line. Not a whole lot of confirmed tornado reports so far today but the shear is just about as strong as it ever gets so I won't be surprised if we end up with a few dozen more reports by tomorrow. Gotta consider how busy they are with issuing warnings alone... that's gonna be their priority now. They'll get around to storm reports later, and I'm sure they'll find plenty of brief tornadoes across Mississippi and Tennessee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Just now, ClicheVortex2014 said: Gotta consider how busy they are with issuing warnings alone... that's gonna be their priority now. They'll get around to storm reports later, and I'm sure they'll find plenty of brief tornadoes across Mississippi and Tennessee. Surely so! Today surprised me, didn't figure we'd get to see severe storms as far north as Illinois, this squall means business. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 @ClicheVortex2014 @Ingyball and the rest must be glad to have their running partner @Neoncyclone back in the fold. I'm not in a typical severe area but I really enjoy all of you all's work. Not to mention if someone out there wants to stay up to the minute and safe I'm not sure there's any where else they could do better than with you guys. I doubt it. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Surely so! Today surprised me, didn't figure we'd get to see severe storms as far north as Illinois, this squall means business. This feels like a bit of a hot take right now given we're only at 11 tornado reports, but I'm expecting at least 50 by the time all is surveyed. Low-level shear has been extreme all day and we still have a while to go. Edited March 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Glad to see those cells in Bama ahead of the squall staying at bay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: This feels like a bit of a hot take right now given we're only at 11 tornado reports, but I'm expecting at least 50 by the time all is surveyed. Low-level shear has been extreme all day and we still have a while to go. I'd definitely have it somewhere between 30-50 by the time all is said and done, it's pretty rare to see 60-70kt perfect hodographs like this in such a widespread regional area, especially for March honestly. A little more instability and we could've easily had our first high risk. EDIT: First severe thunderstorm warning of the year for me just issued Edited March 31, 2022 by Neoncyclone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Starting to see embedded supercells in LA, the line looks like it could start breaking up down here allowing for discrete and semi-discrete storms Edited March 31, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Got strong low-level instability and low-level shear in place... we'll see if storm mode can downscale like SPC is expecting. If so, ingredients are there for wedges/strong tornadoes. Edited March 31, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Confirmed tor very close to KGWX radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Memphis TN 725 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southeastern Itawamba County in northeastern Mississippi... Northeastern Monroe County in northeastern Mississippi... * Until 800 PM CDT. * At 725 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located 7 miles east of Aberdeen, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Hatley, Gattman, Sipsey Fork, Quincy, Greenwood Springs, Splunge, Wise Gap, Athens and Parham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Starting to see much more organized supercell structure with some of these embedded cells. Got a couple to watch that are starting to look like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Gonna be one windy night around here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Neoncyclone said: Starting to see much more organized supercell structure with some of these embedded cells. Got a couple to watch that are starting to look like this. Not to go too far out on a limb but that one approaching Poplarville might be worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Confirmed tornado near Detroit MS. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 745 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 MSC057-095-310100- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-220331T0100Z/ Itawamba MS-Monroe MS- 745 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ITAWAMBA AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES... At 744 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Detroit, or 9 miles northwest of Sulligent, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Hatley, Gattman, Sipsey Fork, Quincy, Greenwood Springs, Splunge, Wise Gap, Athens and Parham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now