TLChip Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 850 Winds 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bradjl2009 said: I just noticed that. They really should upgrade somewhere to a high risk There's no update until 20z unless current storm trend suggests otherwise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: 90-60 Probabilities, & it's only March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0355 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...far southern Illinois...western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 301741Z - 301945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...An expected increase in storm intensity is expected this afternoon as stronger mid-level ascent impacts the region. Damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible. A watch is likely later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover and earlier precipitation has limited heating across parts of the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. However, increasing cloud clearing in northeastern Arkansas and western Tennessee should allow for modest increase in surface heating this afternoon. Furthermore, an increasing low-level jet has been noted across Louisiana/Mississippi in regional VAD data as well as mid-level ascent increasing as the shortwave continues to pivot northeast. This had led to an increase in convective intensity/lightning from southern Louisiana into central Arkansas. These trends are expected to continue farther northward this afternoon. As this occurs, the potential for damaging winds and tornadoes will increase from southeastern Missouri into far southern Illinois and western Kentucky. The primary concern will be strong/severe wind gusts given the low-level wind magnitude. Sufficient low-level veering will promote some threat for embedded circulations/tornadoes within the line of storms. A watch is likely this afternoon for these areas. ..Wendt/Hart.. 03/30/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Noticing the placement of the low is much further south. Could add more spin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 There's already a confirmed QLCS Tornado near Monroe, LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said: Um... Not even to the moderate risk yet 1 hour ago, TLChip said: Holy shit! Current radar HRRR keeping it going for a few hours 1 hour ago, Bradjl2009 said: I just noticed that. They really should upgrade somewhere to a high risk 🎶 take me down to the polygon city🎶 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 If we had the instability today would easily be a high risk day. Thankfully we dont 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Just realized there was a strong tornado in NW AR last night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Tons of lightning around this cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 Looks like an embedded supercell just NW of Jackson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 That was moving at warp speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) Confirmed tornado near Jackson, MS. Warning says media broadcast confirmed tornado. Edited March 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 Got one decent looking discrete cell ahead of the squall that could be long-lived. Mesoanalysis says conditions aren't that favorable for it, but maybe it'll be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Just had a strong severe thunderstorm blow through Mayfield with 70mph winds. It's to my east now but....wow, was it wild. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 whew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Confirmed near Smyrna MS. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 538 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 MSC007-302315- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-220330T2315Z/ Attala MS- 538 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR EASTERN ATTALA COUNTY... At 538 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Smyrna, or 8 miles southeast of Kosciusko, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Attala County, including the following locations... Mccool and Ethel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 Whole bunch of rotation in SW TN/N MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 30, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) Pretty insignificant compared to what else is going on but we hit 80 degrees at Dayton here for the first time this year. Highest wind gust so far at KDAY is 36 mph. Afraid of what's to come tonight. Edited March 30, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 🧐 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 Areas affected...Western Kentucky...southern Illinois...and southwest Indiana. Concerning...Tornado Watch 79... Valid 302232Z - 310000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 79 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind and brief tornado threat will transition to primarily a damaging wind threat. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced squall line continues east across watch 79. The PAH VWP shows very strong 0-1km SRH in excess of 600 m2/s2. This has resulted in several mesovorticies to develop along the squall line. However, limited instability seems to have lessened the longevity of any of these mesovorticies. Dewpoints are still in the upper 50s ahead of the line which could be sufficient for a few QLCS tornadoes in the next hour or two. However, dewpoints in the eastern portions of the watch are near 50F with only modest increases expected in the next 1 to 2 hours. Therefore, considering the very strong low-level jet (in excess of 80 knots per the PAH VWP), damaging wind gusts will remain a threat along the squall line. However, the tornado threat will likely lessen across eastern portions of the watch. A damaging wind threat may persist north and east of watch 79, which could necessitate a downstream watch. However, lightning has reduced significantly along northern portions of the line which could indicate earlier weakening of the line. Therefore, storm trends will likely be monitored over the next hour or so before any decisions on a downstream watch are made. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 03/30/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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