March 29-31, 2022 | Severe Weather, a second outbreak with more than 70 Tornadoes confirmed

[StormfanaticInd]

Won't take much in this highly sheared environment to transfer those winds down to the surface 

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS has a more complicated storm mode but some opportunities for semi-discrete cells because the line kinda breaks up. Also doesn't have the weak mlcape issues GFS has.

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

ILN says they’re not sure how much instability will be left by the time the front arrives but they went ahead and mentioned thunder in their forecast. They mention the ‘long, looping hodograph’, in other words very strong shear, so they’re monitoring the severe potential

[ElectricStorm]

Tuesday should be more of a linear and overnight event for us out here, with damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes the main threats. I think an upgrade to enhanced risk at some point for wind threat is possible, maybe even likely. I haven't been under an enhanced risk in March since 2017 so this has a chance to break the streak. 

Wednesday I think is up in the air for now. There's a chance we see some discrete cells but there's also a good chance it stays mostly linear. Should be a Day 3 enhanced with a good chance at an upgrade to moderate so it'll definitely be a dangerous day. I'll be surprised if we see a Day 3 moderate but you never know. 

CIPS analogues are pretty impressive for Wed though 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2022032712&map=thbSVR

Edited March 28, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Tuesday should be more of a linear and overnight event for us out here, with damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes the main threats. I think an upgrade to enhanced risk at some point for wind threat is possible, maybe even likely. I haven't been under an enhanced risk in March since 2017 so this has a chance to break the streak. 

Wednesday I think is up in the air for now. There's a chance we see some discrete cells but there's also a good chance it stays mostly linear. Should be a Day 3 enhanced with a good chance at an upgrade to moderate so it'll definitely be a dangerous day. I'll be surprised if we see a Day 3 moderate but you never know. 

If there’s no day 3 moderate then it’s just delaying the inevitable. That shear with 1000+ cape is gonna get you a damaging wind event worthy of a moderate risk. So I guess the question is if SPC buys into the 1000+ cape. I haven’t seen a reason not to believe it yet. Obviously, anything more than an enhanced risk for tornadoes is gonna be dependent upon discrete cells ahead of the line. 
 

But yeah, day 3 enhanced is a solid bet

Edited March 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Clown sounding that's slightly contaminated by convective processes but still fun

East-central LA

 

Unsettling to see apparent semi-discrete cells on the 12km NAM

 

It shows that these are pre-frontal cells, and there's good reason to believe in it. Clearly some surface wind convergence as well as some QG things (vorticity advection and WAA)

Edited March 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Last note... the boundary pushing into the enhanced risk area appears to be a dryline. Drylines making it to the Mississippi river is quite rare but most likely to happen with a system of this strength and at this time of year.

Edited March 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Tuesday should be more of a linear and overnight event for us out here, with damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes the main threats. I think an upgrade to enhanced risk at some point for wind threat is possible, maybe even likely. I haven't been under an enhanced risk in March since 2017 so this has a chance to break the streak. 

Wednesday I think is up in the air for now. There's a chance we see some discrete cells but there's also a good chance it stays mostly linear. Should be a Day 3 enhanced with a good chance at an upgrade to moderate so it'll definitely be a dangerous day. I'll be surprised if we see a Day 3 moderate but you never know. 

CIPS analogues are pretty impressive for Wed though 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2022032712&map=thbSVR

New 00z convection allowing models 3-km NAM and FV3 are coming in, with convective initiation after 02z on the southern Plains. Like many comments so far, it is still somewhat questionable which storms may even be able to use 500 J/kg of CAPE before roughly 12z, which is the next convective day, Wednesday.

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z GFS wind gusts. Not shown by the color scale or the city values is 73 mph NW of Columbus. 981mb low in west-central MI.

Edited March 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

No day 2 enhanced (yet?)

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1244 AM CDT MON MAR 28 2022  
  
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY LATE  
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN CA/NORTHERN  
BAJA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SASKATCHEWAN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS  
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS  
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS  
SHORTWAVE, SPREADING EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.   
  
LEE TROUGHING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE,  
WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE RESULTING LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE  
EASTWARD ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER DURING THE DAY BEFORE THEN MOVING  
MORE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA.  
  
AT THE SAME TIME, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLANS AND ADJACENT LOWER/MID MS  
VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW INTERACT  
WITH THIS MOISTURE AND RESULTING BUOYANCY.  
   
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY  
  
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BE  
OVER THE CENTRAL NE/KS BORDER VICINITY. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM  
THIS LOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND  
NORTHWEST TX, AND A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH  
WESTERN KS. AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE  
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, OWING TO THE STRONG CAPPING AND RELATIVELY MODEST  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DUE TO BOTH SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION  
AND DIURNAL MIXING). EVEN IF AFTERNOON INITIATION IS REALIZED,  
DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO STRONG OUTFLOW AND SHORT  
UPDRAFT DURATION.   
  
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FORECAST FOR LATER  
TUESDAY EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES AND  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. INITIAL CONVECTIVE  
INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS, WITH AN  
INITIALLY CELLULAR MODE QUICKLY EVOLVING INTO A MORE LINEAR/OUTFLOW  
DOMINANT STRUCTURE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.   
  
HIGHER OVERALL STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH FROM CENTRAL  
OK INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TX AS STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG THE  
FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. A LINEAR STORM MODE IS FAVORED, WITH THE  
RESULTING LINE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS OK AND NORTH/CENTRAL  
TX. HAIL IS FAVORED WITH THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, WHILE DAMAGING  
WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY LATER WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. A STRONG  
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW  
LINE-EMBEDDED/QLCS TORNADOES.  

 

[StormfanaticInd]

Day three enhanced. Still uncertainty with warm sector supercell development. 

[Iceresistance]

The D4 Slight risk for the Mid-Atlantic had no change in placement

[ClicheVortex2014]

NAM area average sounding for central LA, 18z Wednesday 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

FV3 has no pre-squall convection. Mostly linear but could be semi-discrete in Louisiana for a bit.

 

Squall makes it all the way to the Michigan border... though obviously more low-topped/high shear-based.

Edited March 28, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

New Orleans has some strong wording

There will be some activity ahead of the main line Wed most likely
over southern Miss especially coastal Miss. But these showers will
be developing in a strongly capped region and won`t be sfc based.
Return flow is bringing deeper moisture and this will cause PW
numbers to move upward maximizing from 1.7-2.2" by the time Wed
gets here. The cold front moving through Wed will take advantage
of these numbers with respect to heavy rainfall along the boundary
but this should be progressive without lingering too long in one
place. But rainfall rates could be high enough that any slower
moving cells could cause a few poor drainage areas to flood.
Looking at numbers as the front moves through, some are insane
while others are moderate. SRH0-3km is through the roof ranging
from 600-800. 0-6km Bshear is near 50kt, long strethched Hodos
with excellent turning starting at 1km but critical angles are
lacking as the best seen is around 60. But EHI(CAPExHelicity/160k)
which is only an index since it is unitless but is a good
indicator of an environment conducive for tornadic development;
this is coming in at a wopping 5.6-7.0 over the NW portion of the
area. This quickly subsides through the day Wed but is still high
enough to remain an issue within the 3-4 range. MUCAPE values are
from 1k-1.5k, which are not off the charts but enough to get
things going, but also says this will be a high shear/low CAPE
event. Cloud cover could be an issue with getting localized higher
CAPE values but the advected CAPE numbers will be moderate for
this area. Hodos suggest the line coming in will be a strong
squall line with QLCS formations throughout. A very strong dry air
surge is moving into the mid levels of this line and there are 3
distinct areas where this dry air(850-700mb)is punching in. One is
over the southern Miss counties, the second is into Baton Rouge
and along the I10/12 corridor and a 3rd is near Houma through
Belle Chasse. These surges(punches) of dry air will get entrained
and be extremely capable of stong damaging winds along the line.
Altough future model solutions may change where these areas are
located, they should remain in these future solutions and within
the CWA. DCAPE values are 300-500J, which supports this scenario
of strong downdraft speeds. This all begins to transfer north
along the line around sundown Wed. Upper level support is
definitely there as well. The subtrop jet will be playing along
and not coupling with the polar jet but will bend NE as it feels
the shortwave moving through the base of the long wave polar
trough and will simply tear away downstream leaving the polar jet
to continue moving north bound. This will cause a strong
meridional split flow at H3 jet level further inducing lift of
lower layers as the oreintation allows this divergent flow aloft
to remain over and along the line of sh/ts. Even if the line
remains intact, a QLCS tornadic environment will exist and if this
line is capable of breaking into any discrete cells it would
further enhance the possibility of tornadic development with that
or any particular supercell. All modes of svr wx will be possible
but this does not look like a large hail event, but small hail
could reach the ground. The way they would line up is wind-
tornado-hail. The line should enter the region shortly after noon
arriving in the Baton Rouge area around 4pm, MCB at 5pm, New
Oreans 7pm, Gulfport 9pm and exit the area around midnight Wed
night into Thu morning.

 

Memphis says pre-squall cells are unlikely but not out of the picture

As we head into Wednesday, as advertised over the past several
days, we have the chance for significant severe weather. A
strong, negatively tilted shortwave trough will begin moving
towards the area early Wednesday morning. This trough and
attendant cold front will traverse the region on Wednesday. This
will bring strong gradient winds throughout the day. A Wind
Advisory will be needed and will be put out most likely Tuesday
during the day. Right now, northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel and all of west Tennessee sit in a Slight Risk for severe
weather. Most of north Mississippi sits in an Enhanced Risk.

While the kinematics are strong the question remains the
instability. Dewpoints in the low 60s, PWATs in the 1-1.5in range,
along with cloud cover and any pre-frontal showers may limit how
much instability is available. Right now most CAPE values look to
be in the 500 J/kg range and mostly over north Mississippi. The
primary storm mode looks to be more of a QLCS type with a small
chance of some discrete cellular development ahead of the front.
While unlikely given current set-up it is non-zero chance. Within
the QLCS and any bowing segments wind gusts to 70mph aren`t out of
the realm of possibilities. Quick spin up tornadoes are also
possible. Heavy rain is also likely and thus WPC has all of the
Mid-South in a Marginal Risk for flash flooding. This front should
exit the area by early Thursday morning.

Jackson says the very quick storm motion might be counterproductive for updraft strength

The main highlight for the extended forecast is the expected severe
weather on Wednesday. A closed low system off the Pacific will open
into an elongated trough that will push across the region Wednesday.
At the same time a closed low system negatively tilted will eject
across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. Looking at a
top-down approach, the atmosphere is vertically stacked meaning
these same features can be noted at the upper, mid, and lower levels
of the atmosphere. As this trough pushes across the ArkLaMiss, an
associated cold front will serve as the main point for severe
weather. Ahead of the front temperatures will warm into the 80s for
most places. Warm air from the Gulf will also help warm things up
and increase moisture across the Deep South. PWat`s will be between
1.5-1.75in across central MS Wednesday. While we are still a few
days away and this is a messy set up, a QLCS event is likely. High
LCL`s and spread within temperatures is a limiting factor for sig
tornadoes however, embedded tornadoes within the QLCS will still be
possible. Supercell activity out ahead of the line is uncertain
especially with trying to place the warm sector. This will be a fast
moving system which could also help suppress stronger updrafts
formation. Lapse rates aren`t all that great so not sold on hail
potential however there will be alot of wind energy as this line
pushes through.

Damaging winds looks to be the main threat but again, can`t rule out
tornadoes. Latest guidance showing sustained winds into the 30s-
40mph while gust reaching above 60 mph. As we near the day of
concern, a wind advisory may be needed. With all of that said, will
continue the `Enhanced Risk` threat for severe storms and upgrade
wind threat to `Elevated`. The Elevated may get upgraded with later
forecasts.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

CIPS analogs continues to be very convincing but something kinda hidden is the fact that 4 of the analogs have a northern area of separate severe weather

 

[Iceresistance]

Slight risk on D2 has been updated, I don't see much, if at all, changes to it.

[Central Illinois]

looks like it could be a decent squall line event but with these types of events timing is everything 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nasty squall line but no pre-frontal cells. Likely to be embedded supercells in the squall but that doesn't tend to be as dangerous as pre-squall.

Definitely a signal for semi-discrete cells in Louisiana. But anecdotally (from watching from afar for almost a decade), Louisiana tends to have more complicated/messy storm modes than models put on.

Edited March 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Overall, I think SPC will be happy with the placement of the current day 3 enhanced risk/hatched. What I get from the CAMs is that the greatest potential will be in Louisiana and southern Mississippi. I still think they should upgrade to moderate for damaging winds but it's fine. Depending on how well put together the squall is, there should be plenty of qlcs tornadoes. Probably gonna get a 10% unhatched tornado area for a decent amount of Mississippi and western Alabama.

ARW has a well-organized squall with storm mode becoming progressively more semi-discrete in the vicinity of Jackson, MS and south. Also hints at a pre-squall supercell in the late afternoon that could stay discrete for a few hours. Worst case scenario there.

NSSL has a messy storm mode with some hints of semi-discrete cells. Looks kinda messy but it's still a little more concerning than the models showing just linear.

 

FV3 has no pre-squall cells but the squall does break up which is almost as dangerous.

Edited March 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

The 00z CAMs have several updraft helicity tracks up by Memphis on Wednesday, with the squall line. It's possible that this segment will have a hard time getting the higher CAPE values and discrete storms, but it still seems like this may be a very active area. This seems to be a very analogous situation to last week (3/22), when several tornado and wind reports happened north of Jackson Mississippi within the large squall line, a little north of the moderate risk contour.

[ElectricStorm]

I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see an upgrade to enhanced for tomorrow for wind at some point but I think it's more likely it remains slight. Either way I just hope we get a good storm out of this which it looks like we're going to. Still in a drought out here so anything helps. Just gotta hope the QLCS tornado threat stays pretty low and doesn't randomly go from nothing to something in like 5 minutes like last time. 

For Wed I think it will stay enhanced for now although a moderate for wind is probably likely at some point. Might need to watch W AL for some pre squall action but that's a low chance for now. 

Might also need to watch Friday for a small event in OK/KS but that's a big question mark for now. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[ClicheVortex2014]

Model comparison loop for wind gusts valid 11pm Wednesday. They all have the longitude and magnitude of wind gusts pretty damn similar. I like me some strong wind gusts, convective or synoptic, but I draw the line at power outages. That's a very thin line. 

Warm sector winds are anywhere between 15 knots and 30 knots. Pretty nasty for winds that'd probably be persistent.

Edited March 29, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[snowlover2]

Slight risk expanded north to cover more of IA on new day 1.

Quote

 Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1221 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
   AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and
   southern Great Plains and Lower Missouri Valley Tuesday evening into
   early Wednesday morning.

   ...Synopsis...
   A closed upper-low over central California will start to move east
   this morning and move into the central/southern Plains by late
   tonight. A strong mid-upper level jet will overspread the southern
   Plains into the Midwest. A deepening surface cyclone will develop
   with a strong mass response and a large region of 50+ knot flow at
   850mb from the western Gulf to the Upper Midwest after 00Z. A
   dryline will extend from the surface low to west Texas for most of
   the period before starting to advance eastward across the southern
   Plains late tonight. 

   ...Central/Southern Plains...
   Moisture remains limited across the Plains this morning with 60
   degree dewpoints barely north of I-10. As southerly low-level flow
   strengthens through the day, this moisture will advect northward and
   destabilize the warm sector ahead of a dryline which will extend
   from West Texas to the I-35 corridor in Kansas. However, moisture
   quality remains low and therefore, some mixing is anticipated with
   dewpoints likely to stay in the upper 50s to low 60s. This dry
   airmass, combined with a stout EML, should limit convective
   potential during the day today despite persistent large-scale ascent
   and height falls. 

   Expect storms to form along the dryline near 00Z as the upper-level
   trough advances eastward and the low-level jet strengthens,
   providing ample lift to overcome the large cap. Deep-layer shear
   will support organized/rotating updrafts, however, storm motion will
   remain mostly parallel to the dryline. Therefore, expect upscale
   growth into a QLCS to occur rather quickly with a threat for
   damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Most 00Z CAM guidance has a
   somewhat disorganized line through 06Z with better organization
   closer to 12Z. This seems to be associated with the arrival of
   better quality moisture and a 60+ kt low-level jet. Expanded the 5
   percent tornado probabilities from the prior Day 2 outlook eastward
   across Oklahoma to account for this threat early Wednesday morning.

   ...Southeast Nebraska into Iowa...
   The forecast is complicated across this region this evening/early
   overnight as 00Z guidance shows considerable variability in moisture
   quality across the region which has considerable impacts on storm
   threats. Regardless of the low-level moisture, an elevated hail
   threat is expected across eastern Nebraska and most of Iowa after
   00Z along the cold front/dryline near the surface low. Forecast
   soundings show very steep lapse rates (8 to 8.5 C/km), moderate to
   strong instability (MUCAPE 1500 to 2000 J/kg) and effective shear in
   excess of 50 knots. If sufficient low-level moistening can occur,
   some of the storms on the southern extent of this activity could
   become surface based. If this occurs, the low-level shear profile
   would support a tornado threat. Given the low-quality nature of the
   moisture and the northward distance it needs to travel, do not
   expect much of a surface-based storm threat to materialize. However,
   there is enough of a chance to warrant 2 percent tornado
   probabilities.

   ..Bentley/Darrow.. 03/29/2022