March 29-31, 2022 | Severe Weather, a second outbreak with more than 70 Tornadoes confirmed

[Iceresistance]

4 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Got pretty crazy with the winds. Easily pushing 60mph

SPC has confirmed storm reports of 58-60 mph winds in Indy

 

It got up to 72 in Chicago

[snowlover2]

Pretty amazing how the day started with SPC saying no thunder for today and now there are a total of 16 wind reports between IL/IN.

[Chinook]

I am definitely impressed by the lowness of the pressure on Tuesday. As of the 00z GFS, the 96-hr forecast says 982 mb near Grand Island or Lincoln, with the GFS severe weather parameters relatively impressive east of I-35 up to the Iowa/Missouri border. I say "relatively" because the GFS usually struggles to correctly predict CAPE vs convective inhibition at hour 96 to 120 and similar times.  The precipitation shows up at hour-99.  I'm sure that there is much more to be said as we get closer, as seeing the eventual day-2 SPC forecast (posted on Monday afternoon) might be a lot more interesting.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Chinook

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z GFS continues with ridiculous shear and moderate sbcape... but mlcape is still lacking due to dry air. If this persists, any supercell may tend to be outflow dominant and therefore more of a damaging wind threat. So as it stands now, I can see this being widespread damaging winds with a QLCS tornado threat due to extreme shear. Maybe an isolated/brief supercell tornado threat.

Will need to watch the trends because mlcape and presence of warm sector convection are the big questionmarks.

It's worth noting that this region doesn't seen sun at all on Wednesday... so the mixed layer has been mixed almost entirely by surface winds. That's an interesting twist for a severe weather day. The rate of mixing apparently outweighs the rate of moisture advection.

Edited March 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

Round 3 of the March Severe Weather Sequence

D4 Slight, which is very broad

D5 is now Enhanced for the Mississippi River area, almost in the same spot as the March 22nd Moderate Risk

And Finally, a unusual D6 Slight Risk, what is unusual is that it's over Virginia & the Carolinas

[ClicheVortex2014]

12z GFS has stronger mlcape at 21z Wednesday than yesterday’s runs. Still lacking at 18z but certainly a little concerning that it improved at all

[Ingyball]

Hour 87 of the SREF Combined Sigtor parameter. Question will be if we have storms at 0z or not, but that's prime position of the low for some triple point action here. 

[Ingyball]

12z NAM has some beautiful hodographs in Kansas, however, storm motion would suggest that the potential is actually limited. With the storm motion vector right on top of the shear vectors, you aren't going to get much SRH in reality. 

[Ingyball]

The best one is probably up near the triple point in Nebraska, 0-1km SRH still looks good even when subtracting the storm motion from the 0-1km shear vector. Question is can we actually get this much moisture northward lol. 

[Ingyball]

Euro sounding a bit southeast of Wichita (where it has a storm at this hour). Not bad, would want to see more moisture of course, but this is also Kansas so this isn't super unusual lol.

[Iceresistance]

Somewhat strong wording for Oklahoma for Wednesday

 

Severe potential will accompany this shortwave as it progresses
   eastward, beginning across the southern and central Plains on
   D4/Tuesday. Strong moisture advection will precede the shortwave
   across the Plains, with low 60s dewpoints potentially reaching
   through eastern OK by Tuesday evening. A well-developed EML atop
   this returning moisture will support moderate buoyancy. A sharp
   dryline will intersect with this buoyancy to support thunderstorm
   development, with the mesoscale ascent along the dryline aided by
   strengthening large-scale ascent. Supercell wind profiles will
   support updraft organization and the potential for all severe
   hazards.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

The best one is probably up near the triple point in Nebraska, 0-1km SRH still looks good even when subtracting the storm motion from the 0-1km shear vector. Question is can we actually get this much moisture northward lol. 

Doing a little better than a couple counties to my southwest on Wednesday 😆Nothing like a 500mb EL. Could pull off a surprise though.

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty convincing

[ClicheVortex2014]

North-central KS on NAM... not bad. Definitely good for some significant hail.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Shear continues to be ridiculous over a pretty large stretch. Still have some issues with dryness. Widespread damaging wind and embedded QLCS tornadoes seems like a given and I'll be flabbergasted if they take this down to a slight risk. 

 

N MS

W TN

 

SE LA

Edited March 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

Here we go

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes. On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details, particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing segments where modest destabilization does occur. The most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

[CrazyINwx]

Here's a look from a few AFDs across the South. 

HUN

Spoiler

Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun Mar 27 2022 Global models continue to depict a deepening mid-level shortwave trough spreading eastward across the southern Rockies and into the adjacent High Plains on Tuesday night, with this disturbance predicted to assume a sharp negative-tilt as it advances across northern OK/southern KS on Wednesday before racing northeastward into the western Great Lakes Wednesday night. A remarkable increase in south-southwesterly flow through a deep-layer of the troposphere will occur across the TN Valley on Wednesday, in response to the evolution of the trough and it related surface low, which should reach western IL by 00Z Thursday. Guidance suggests that a strongly forced squall line along a surface trough/remnant dryline extending southward from the low will shift quickly across the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley regions early Wednesday afternoon, intensifying as it encounters a moistening/destabilizing boundary layer to its east. Although it still appears as if the squall line will not reach the MS-AL border until close to 00Z Thursday and cross our region during the evening, a heightened risk for significant damaging winds will likely be realized due to the intense nature of the low/mid-level field. A risk for brief tornadoes embedded within the QLCS will also exist, but at this point, the potential for a rather high-impact damaging wind event is the greatest concern. Outside of convection, gradient winds will easily reach Wind Advisory criteria on Wednesday.

BHM

Spoiler

Tuesday and Wednesday. Our warmest portion of the long-term forecast period will be Tue and Wed; both will feature afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. This is due to the establishing mid/upper-level ridge along and east of the Mississippi Valley, and the southeastward positioning of the low-level ridge allowing for southerly boundary layer flow across the Gulf Coast and Deep South. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough is progged to move east from the Rockies into the Plains on Tue. This will feature a few embedded shortwave perturbations. The first will eject across the Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley Tue afternoon, with a second shortwave ejection favoring the Southern Plains along with a 80+ kt mid-level jet streak and area of downstream upper-level divergence. This shortwave will provide the dynamics necessary for severe convective weather across the Southern Plains late Tue where a warm sector will be primed to interact with a dry line. Warm sector conditions will spread from there to the north and east, though our moisture content will be quite low in our area then. In fact, there`s no mentionable PoPs in the forecast until Wed afternoon for Central Alabama. By then, the remnant Southern Plains convective system is forecast to approach the lower Mississippi Valley ahead of the shortwave, bringing with it a narrow warm sector containing dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s. With mid-level lapse rates varying in the 6-6.5 C/km range, MLCAPE 500-1,000 J/kg is expected. Higher values of this instability likely stay to our west in MS where peak diurnal heating will be a factor. Despite the weakening thermodynamic aspect for severe weather potential for our area, kinematic parameters will be quite high Wednesday evening. Most operational guidance suggests a very robust low-level jet spreading across the area (50-60 kt winds at 925 mb, and 60-70 kt winds at 850 mb). This will promote broad curved hodographs with 300-400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH. Thus, the damaging wind and tornado threat will be at least "low-end" for Central Alabama as line-embedded supercells/bowing segments potentially impact the area. This threat could begin in the west in the late afternoon (earlier if more discrete cells develop out ahead) and exit to our east early Thursday morning. In addition to severe weather, gusty non-thunderstorm winds of 35-45 mph will be possible Wed afternoon into Wed night. This stems from the robust LLJ/mixed BL, as well as a tight pressure gradient ahead of the thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. 1-2" of rainfall is expected, with locally higher amounts. Any training of heavy rainfall would lead to flash flooding given favorable antecedent conditions (high soil moisture/stream flows). Urban and low-lying areas along I-20 will also be at risk, as is usually the case.

JAN

Spoiler

Dry weather will begin the week as upper ridging moves into the region from the west. Temperatures will be in the 70s and some 80s on Monday, warming more into the lower to mid 80s on Tuesday. By Tuesday night, the upper ridge will be push off to the east in response to a deepening upper trough located across the Southern Plains. An intensifying surface low will be tracking across the Southern to Central Plains as this occurs. Winds will be gusty starting Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of this system. At minimum, a limited risk for wind graphic will be needed but a wind advisory is likely as we get closer to this time period. The surface low will track toward the Great Lakes region and drag a front toward the forecast area and the upper trough will take on more of a negative tilt. Along and ahead of this front, a line of storms looks to develop and move through the region during the mid afternoon to evening time period. Sufficient CAPE will be in place as depicted by 700-1600 J/kg of MUCAPE, along with 50-75kts of deep layer shear and 300-500 m2/s2 helicity to bring potential for severe storms within this line. Damaging straight line winds and embedded tornadoes look to be the primary concerns within the QLCS that should develop and move through the region. As of this morning, the enhanced risk has been expanded to cover the entire forecast area. Given the progressive nature of the system, flooding is not expected to be an issue, though widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts should be likely. The line of storms should exit the region Wednesday evening as well as the cold front. The region will come under zonal flow which will allow for a disturbance to move across the region by the end of the forecast period(Saturday). This should bring some rain to the region, especially across the south near the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary. Temperatures will return to the 60s and 70s for the latter portions of the week and headed into next weekend. /28/

MEG

Spoiler

That brings us to the midweek system we`ve been advertising for a few days. This trough looks to provide windy conditions Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of a Pacific cold front. South winds are forecast to approach wind advisory criteria on Wednesday with gusts to 40 mph at times. These strong winds will support impressive deep-layer shear, supportive of organized convection and long-looping hodographs. Instability remains in the primary question, though the 27/00z global ensembles are indicating slightly higher probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg. This is a pretty classic case of a conditional high shear-low CAPE setup with some boom or bust potential. Will continue to monitor how this evolves to hone in on specific hazards for messaging purposes, but at this time, damaging winds appear the most likely threat with a QLCS, followed by tornadoes. Again, this all hinges on the instability coming to fruition across the Mid-South. Storms are expected to end from west to east Wednesday evening, with any lingering rain pulling out overnight. Cooler air will settle over the Mid-South for Thursday and Friday with generally dry weather during this period. The broad trough over much of the CONUS is progged to lift out over the weekend with the flow becoming more quasi-zonal with several discernible shortwave troughs traversing the pattern. There is plenty of uncertainty in where these shortwaves will be at any given time but the consensus provides low rain chances (20-30%) much of the weekend.

 

[Iceresistance]

Very broad D3 Slight Risk along the Cold Front/Dry Line

D4 is looking very dangerous. 0_0

Very Strong wording from the SPC as well
 

Spoiler

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... .

..DISCUSSION...
An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes.

On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details, particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing segments where modest destabilization does occur. The most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

And finally, a Slight risk for the Mid-Atlantic

 

Spoiler

On Thursday/Day 5, a severe risk will likely continue eastward into the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States, including the potential for fast-moving low-topped storms capable of wind damage in the Mid-Atlantic region.

 

[Iceresistance]

When was the last time there was a 60% STP this far out?
 

[NebraskaEgg]

First risk of the year... only marginal but I'll take it.

[ClicheVortex2014]

sigtor ingredients continues to grow but it seems less likely than last event that there'll be pre-squall supercells... so this doesn't mean as much. But this squall should be a prolific QLCS tornado producer.

I think we might see another day 3 moderate risk

Edited March 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

986 low in east central Illinois with what looks like a QLCS outbreak

[StormfanaticInd]

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

986 low in east central Illinois with what looks like a QLCS outbreak

Gfs has a 983 low...

[ClicheVortex2014]

3 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Gfs has a 983 low...

GFS has high wind warning criteria for SW OH. Gusts even approach hurricane force. Euro isn't as juicy but still pretty serious wind gusts.

 

 

Reason for those ridiculous gusts on GFS? 70 knot winds at 1km, 90 knots at 2km, and an inverted V thermo profile starting at 2km

Edited March 27, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

GFS has high wind warning criteria for SW OH. Gusts even approach hurricane force. Euro isn't as juicy but still pretty serious wind gusts.

 

 

Reason for those ridiculous gusts on GFS? 70 knot winds at 1km, 90 knots at 2km, and an inverted V thermo profile starting at 2km

WOW!!! Good day to fly a kite. Lol