snowlover2 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Now it's confirmed. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mobile AL 856 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ALC129-MSC041-111-310230- /O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-220331T0230Z/ Washington AL-Perry MS-Greene MS- 856 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL PERRY AND CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES... At 855 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 4 miles northeast of McLain, or 11 miles west of Leakesville, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Leakesville around 910 PM CDT. Fruitdale around 935 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Wow these pre-frontal storms are something to watch, 70% of this supercell is mesocyclone, if it is able to remain discrete while maturing we're definitely talking significant tornado threat with these. SPC MCD on the pre-frontals Edited March 31, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 It's insane how this shit always happens at night. I know it's not always the case obviously but especially down there in the deep south it seems like it's always when people are sleeping.☹️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 31, 2022 Author Share Posted March 31, 2022 Another TDS near Livingston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Supercellular structure in many places now including coming off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Debris ball on the cell N of Tuscaloosa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 ILN mentions that the near-term models suggest 60+ mph winds will be possible outside of any rain later and might issue a high wind warning .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... An update on the overall concerns overnight... General Setup: Although there is currently a surface low located in southeastern Wisconsin, the main concern overnight will be with a stronger / more consolidated surface low expected to develop in the next few hours in southern Illinois. This low will then move NNE through northwest Indiana and into southern Michigan, with recent HRRR/RAP runs indicating it will deepen to somewhere around 978mb by 12Z. Ahead of the 850mb reflection of this low, a SSE low-level jet will rapidly increase in strength over the next few hours across the middle Ohio Valley, peaking out at 70-75 knots in the 04Z-06Z time frame across the ILN forecast area. The overall scenario regarding the arrangement of different lines of showers, different troughs, and eventually a cold front moving east through the area, remains somewhat convoluted. This forecast update will attempt to cover three aspects of the threat. 1) The first aspect deals with not just the incoming convective line, but with the potential for strong wind gusts just ahead of it (as described nicely in the previous discussion). Recent HRRR runs have been a little less robust on how the convective line will hold together across the ILN forecast area, suggesting it may only do so for the southern portions of the CWA. Radar trends between 8PM-9PM in southern Indiana and western Kentucky have been generally downward, though HRRR runs suggest some intensification is possible as the LLJ kicks in. Low level shear will be very strong -- 60-70 knots out of the SW at 0-3km, and 40-50 knots out of the SSW at 0-1km. Even with weak convection, and even with virtually no CAPE in place at all, this much atmospheric wind will support a threat for scattered strong wind gusts -- and perhaps some isolated damaging gusts. The expected orientation of the line, with respect to the 0-1km shear vector, would suggest only an extremely low chance of mesovortex generation / tornadogenesis. This would only be favored if there is a well-defined kink or break in the line. With all of this said, there is perhaps a more concerning signal in recent HRRR/RAP runs just ahead of the convective line, as the very dry inverted-V type mixed boundary layer finally begins to saturate. Just as this is occurring, there will be some potential for very strong winds to mix down to the surface. In fact, both the 22Z HRRR and 23Z RAP, using KCVG as an example, suggest that >50kt gusts will be possible. Upstream conditions over central Kentucky will be monitored carefully over the next few hours. For now, the wind gust grids have been increased by a few knots, but if it starts to appear that a higher-end scenario is about to occur, a High Wind Warning could be needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 Aside from widespread stratiform rain, storm mode is quite favorable in central AL. Squall has largely broken up and discrete cells are out ahead of the broken line. Shear at Birmingham is just stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 This supercell in SE MS and now SW AL is trying to free itself of the squall/bow. If it does it should easily become tornadic and possibly significantly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Pre-frontal storms slowly maturing, tornado warning issued on one just now in Perry, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 That cell near Marion has potential to produce a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 And heres a cc drop on the Marion storm, should be confirmed any time now if it isnt already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 Debris signature. Keep in mind this system is taking a negative tilt now and the low is strengthening. Low-level shear has been increasing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: That cell near Marion has potential to produce a monster 1 minute ago, Neoncyclone said: And heres a cc drop on the Marion storm, should be confirmed any time now if it isnt already 1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Debris signature. Keep in mind this system is taking a negative tilt now and the low is strengthening. Low-level shear has been increasing. Was just about to say: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 I think I'm seeing debris up to 14k feet... so that would put the tornado in the EF3-4 range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 This supercell is about to move into this hodograph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 This one could get ugly as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 Just now, OKwx_2001 said: This one could get ugly as well It has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 This spring is turning out as I feared and it's just march! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 A lot of places for potential tornadoes, getting more confirmed tornado warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Large tornado NE of gulfport, MS Edited March 31, 2022 by Neoncyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Strongest signature Of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 Done cycling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 31, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Debris is causing ~60 dBz reflectivity so yeah there's an EF2+ on the ground Edited March 31, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neoncyclone Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 And now a well-defined debris ball this one is significant SW Lawley, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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