Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 This radar hole sucks but even from this far distance, you can see a very strong meso 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 That squall in NE TX is gonna be producing some embedded tornadoes with that strong low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Strong meso north of Tyler, TX now, might produce soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Random storm down by Laredo warned for baseball size hail. Not even in the marginal risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 Oof. Hopefully it's not on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 This one's back to PDS warned. So they must have someone with eyes on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) Tyler has been spared or it has produced a tornado weak enough to not send debris up 6000 feet. Gilmer wasn't as lucky. Possibly significant tornado ongoing. Both supercells are pretty well defined now and not as embedded in the squall as they were earlier. Edited March 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Holy freaking crap the person in this truck got insanely lucky 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 Oh yikes... I see debris up to 15k feet right now from the Gilmer supercell. Puts it in the high-end EF2/EF3 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Uhhh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0302 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 56... Valid 220351Z - 220545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 056. Tornadoes appear to be the main threat for at least the next few hours, though damaging gusts may also accompany bowing segments. DISCUSSION...Two semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across the Smith/Upshur County Texas area, with another more discrete supercell in progress across Houston County, with either tornadoes reported or TDSs detected via KSHV dual-polarimetric radar in both locations. These storms are progressing in a highly sheared environment, with the SHV depicting an impressive, large/curved hodograph, with over 500 m2/s2 SRH in the 0-1km layer alone. As such, the tornado threat is expected to continue across Tornado Watch 056 for at least a few more hours, as also suggested by the 03Z Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance, with several members showing storms remaining discrete and robust into the 05-06Z period. ..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Wait for it… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 The very long-lived supercell's time is coming to a close. It's been, what, 6-8 hours now? Probably has another hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: The very long-lived supercell's time is coming to a close. It's been, what, 6-8 hours now? Probably has another hour. Seems like the meso is getting stronger again. Might try to produce yet another one if that continues. Hopefully not, there's been way more than enough destruction today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 4 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: Seems like the meso is getting stronger again. Might try to produce yet another one if that continues. Hopefully not, there's been way more than enough destruction today. And it's on the ground again. CC drop near Cushing, TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burr Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 hour ago, OKwx_2001 said: Holy freaking crap the person in this truck got insanely lucky Didn’t mean to repost the same vid you had… that’s nuts, right?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Burr said: Didn’t mean to repost the same vid you had… that’s nuts, right?! Yeah it's a miracle they were able to just drive away like that like nothing happened. Unreal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) Hopefully tomorrow busts (relatively speaking) like I'm thinking it will... storm mode looks really messy. Best bet for severe weather imo is the north half of Mississippi. South half and Louisiana is boom/bust. Edited March 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) Looks like that supercell is finally starting the process of merging with the squall, although it still has a decent meso. Hopefully it merges soon and becomes less of a threat. EDIT: And there's another CC drop are you kidding me Edited March 22, 2022 by OKwx_2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Day 1 outlook is out early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 A part of me is wondering if they need to expand the risk north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 6 hours ago, OKwx_2001 said: Holy freaking crap the person in this truck got insanely lucky 🎸🎶 Like A Rock 🎶🎸 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Al_Czervik Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 5 hours ago, Burr said: Wait for it… That is insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincysnow Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 SPC’s latest discussion, map to go with it: Spoiler Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST TO EAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A regional severe weather outbreak appears likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast States today, with some threat continuing into tonight. Tornadoes, some of which should be strong, and potentially widespread damaging winds will be the most impactful hazards. ...Lower MS Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... An elongated QLCS is ongoing from northwest MS to southeast TX. Much of the overnight severe threat has been subdued given the slow movement of the squall line in between two primary shortwave impulses (lead one now in eastern KS and the next one over the Lower Rio Grande Valley). Forcing for ascent downstream of the latter impulse appears to be influencing the far southern extent of the QLCS near the Upper TX Coast. This will support eventual forward acceleration of the QLCS today as a sub-synoptic surface cyclone tracks northeast from near Houston, TX to near Memphis, TN within a nearly meridional deep-layer flow regime. The plume of moderate buoyancy near the Upper TX Coast and much of LA will shift/expand across most of MS into far western AL through this afternoon as the boundary-layer warms within cloud breaks. With at least a 60-70 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, classic sickle-shaped hodographs in a broad portion of the warm/moist sector will conditionally support potential for a regional tornado outbreak. The primary uncertainty is the degree of warm-sector discrete supercell development ahead of the QLCS. The most plausible corridor for this to occur appears to be from near the northern LA/southwest MS border area to the MS/AL border area from midday through the afternoon. It still looks more probable that the bulk of convective activity will ultimately remain tied to the QLCS given the largely meridional flow regime. The impinging of an intensifying mid-level jet should favor bowing segments (especially with northern extent) and embedded supercells. Tornadoes from both supercells and mesovortices are likely, some of which will probably be strong, with the greatest potential this afternoon. Damaging winds may become widespread, with multiple long-lived swaths possible. The overall severe threat should diminish during the evening through a combination of the northern portion of the QLCS outpacing surface-based instability and waning of large-scale ascent near the central Gulf Coast as the shortwave impulse ejects away from the region to the north-northeast. Nevertheless, a still strong low-level jet and presence of rich boundary-layer moisture will foster a persistent but probably spatially diminishing threat tonight across parts of AL and the western FL Panhandle. ...Western to northern MO... Scattered low-topped convection is expected to develop midday into the afternoon in the left-exit region of the intense mid-level jet over the south-central states. Boundary-layer winds are consistently forecast to diminish during this time frame, as the area remains well displaced from the tighter pressure gradient over the OH/TN Valleys. In addition, buoyancy is expected to be meager and mid-level lapse rates modest. While small hail may accompany the most robust updrafts, the overall setup does not appear favorable for an appreciable threat of organized severe storms. ..Grams/Gleason.. 03/22/2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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