Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 NW TX off to a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Usually not a good sign when you have a moderate risk and the slight risk is producing like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 ILN latest on severe here Wednesday. Quote .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Active long term time period is expected. Some initial precipitation will be moving through during the morning hours on Wednesday. There will then be a lull or decrease in precipitation before additional showers and thunderstorms develop during the afternoon and early evening hours on Wednesday. CIPS analogs continue to highlight, as has been the case for several days now, the potential for at least some severe weather on Wednesday. SPC is now indicating that potential as well with a marginal risk. Due to signal being present for several days, decided to add mention into the HWO. How robust the storms get will depend on how many breaks in the clouds end up occurring. Will continue to fine tune as this system gets closer. In addition to the potential for severe weather, outside of storms there will also be the potential for breezy conditions with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. After these storms move through there will be a brief lull or break in the rain. This lull will be short lived as an upper level low approaches. This will be just one in a series of upper level lows and disturbances that then move through the region through Saturday. With several systems moving through expect off and on precipitation chances through Saturday. In additional breezy conditions will be present during this time frame as well. As colder air moves in, cannot rule out a few snowflakes going into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Debris signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Looks like that might be a strong tornado heading towards Jacksboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 NWS-DFW has added "This tornado is headed for Jacksboro. Seek shelter now!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Main event is beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 PDS Warned! Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 357 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 TXC237-212130- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220321T2130Z/ Jack TX- 357 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR EASTERN JACK COUNTY... At 356 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Jacksboro, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Newport around 420 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 First severe warning for the main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Just doesn't quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 North Texas is having a day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Southernmost supercell is angry ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS...GUADALUPE...WEST CENTRAL GONZALES...EAST CENTRAL BEXAR AND SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTIES... At 509 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Zuehl, or near Cibolo, moving northeast at 35 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM NEAR SANTA CLARA. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... New Braunfels, San Marcos, Schertz, Seguin, Cibolo, McQueeney, St. Hedwig, Marion, Kingsbury, Santa Clara, New Berlin, Staples, Zuehl, Geronimo, Zorn, Redwood, Freiheit, Solms, Hunter and Nolte. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central Texas. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room, a bathroom or closet or basement. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 2955 9761 2939 9813 2941 9813 2943 9814 2944 9813 2944 9814 2940 9821 2946 9827 2998 9805 TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 209DEG 29KT 2953 9811 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Confirmed tornado SW of Austin TX. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 521 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 TXC209-212245- /O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220321T2245Z/ Hays TX- 521 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY... At 521 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Wimberley, moving north at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... San Marcos, Buda, Dripping Springs, Wimberley, Woodcreek, Bear Creek, Driftwood, Hays, Mount Gainor and Hays City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 4 semi-discrete supercells in a line. Nocturnal LLJ kicks in an hour or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Possible tornado west of Fort Worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 SPC says tornado potential is increasing. Could have a long-track tornado. Mesoscale Discussion 0295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Areas affected...portions of central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 54... Valid 212232Z - 220000Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch #054. Large hail, damaging gusts and tornadoes may accompany any mature storm within the watch. A corridor of greater severe potential is likely developing near Austin, TX and will progress northeast through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, thunderstorm clusters, and linear segments have developed across the western portions of Tornado Watch #054 over the past couple of hours, with a history of tornadoes near Jacksboro and Bowie Texas. Storms continue to develop ahead of a Pacific front/dryline just west of the I-35 corridor, and are advancing east into a buoyant airmass. These storms are also progressing toward the axis of the low-level jet, where greater moisture and low-level shear exist (per 22z mesoanalysis). 20Z RAP forecast soundings (valid for 22-00Z) show large, curved hodographs downshear of the ongoing storms). As such, tornado potential is expected to increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours. Of particular concern are the supercells along a line from Burnet to Guadalupe Counties, which are tracking in an thermodynamic environment characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Given the storm mode and aforementioned buoyancy/shear, a heightened tornado threat may develop. Any supercell that becomes dominant/discrete (relatively pristine inflow) will have the greatest risk for producing strong tornadoes, and a long-lived, long-tracked tornado cannot be completely ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 All this and the storms aren't even to the 15 hatched yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 possible big yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 (edited) 36 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Southernmost supercell is angry ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS...GUADALUPE...WEST CENTRAL GONZALES...EAST CENTRAL BEXAR AND SOUTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTIES... At 509 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Zuehl, or near Cibolo, moving northeast at 35 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM NEAR SANTA CLARA. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely. Locations impacted include... New Braunfels, San Marcos, Schertz, Seguin, Cibolo, McQueeney, St. Hedwig, Marion, Kingsbury, Santa Clara, New Berlin, Staples, Zuehl, Geronimo, Zorn, Redwood, Freiheit, Solms, Hunter and Nolte. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central Texas. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows. This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room, a bathroom or closet or basement. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 2955 9761 2939 9813 2941 9813 2943 9814 2944 9813 2944 9814 2940 9821 2946 9827 2998 9805 TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 209DEG 29KT 2953 9811 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH monster Edited March 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: possible big yikes And there's the PDS. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 552 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Williamson County in south central Texas... * Until 615 PM CDT. * At 551 PM CDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Sun City, or near Serenada, moving northeast at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. * Locations impacted include... Georgetown, Bartlett, Jarrell, Theon, Schwertner and Walburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 21, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 21, 2022 Northern two supercells in that line of 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2022 Share Posted March 21, 2022 Another PDS. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 555 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 TXC055-177-187-212315- /O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220321T2315Z/ Caldwell TX-Guadalupe TX-Gonzales TX- 555 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN CALDWELL...NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND NORTHEASTERN GONZALES COUNTIES... At 555 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Luling, moving northeast at 40 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Lockhart, Luling, Waelder, Kingsbury, Fentress, Brownsboro, Delhi, Joliet, Tilmon, Stairtown, McNeil, McMahan, Thompsonville, Dale and Taylorsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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