March 21-23, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[ElectricStorm]

Day 1 remains enhanced 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

No surprise... day 2 moderate risk for tornadoes

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0102 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2022  
  
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
MISSISSIPPI...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADOES -- REMAINS EVIDENT OVER THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH -- EXTENDING FROM ARCTIC NORTH-CENTRAL  
CANADA TO MEXICO -- WILL STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S./PLAINS STATES  
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  A SURROUNDING/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BELT OF  
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, THOUGH FLANKING/STOUT  
RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN STATES THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS, THOUGH A  
DIGGING LOBE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF NEW  
MEXICO ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS, AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  
  
AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDING LOW SHOULD RESIDE OVER EASTERN KANSAS  
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.  A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH THE  
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT -- MAKING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE HIGHER  
THETA-E GULF BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.  NORTHWARD  
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION TO THE  
COOLER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY.  
  
BY LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD, THE LOW SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE  
ILLINOIS VICINITY, WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
   
..FAR EASTERN TEXAS TO ALABAMA  
  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LIKELY  
TUESDAY, CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND  
VICINITY.  
  
THUNDERSTORMS -- AND ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK -- WILL BE ONGOING AT  
THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.   
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION  
WILL OCCUR, AS PERSISTENT WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLIES ADVECT GULF  
MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  GIVEN VERY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES, AND AIDED BY AN AMPLY UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS, STRONGLY ROTATING STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING,  
SPREADING OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA.  TORNADOES --  
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT EVENTS -- REMAIN A LIKELIHOOD,  
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.   
  
IN ADDITION TO THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL SPREAD  
EASTWARD WITH TIME ACROSS THE ENH AND EVENTUALLY MDT RISK AREAS,  
ISOLATED CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A ZONE OF STRONG  
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND.  ANY SUCH CELLS  
WOULD QUICKLY ACQUIRE UPDRAFT ROTATION, AND WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADOES.  AS SUCH, SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE  
MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
  
THE BOUNDS OF THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RISK AREA REMAIN DIFFICULT  
TO DISCERN, AS VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL EXIST WELL NORTH, BUT WITH  
ONGOING/ELEVATED CONVECTION LIKELY TO LIMIT NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF  
MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR.  STILL, SEVERE STORM RISK CURRENTLY  
APPEARS TO EXTEND AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA.  
  
SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS  
THE COLD FRONT -- AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION -- ADVANCES.  
 AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS RISK MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN  
ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE IN THE  
PERIOD.   
   
..FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI  
  
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS MISSOURI  
TUESDAY, COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE  
ACROSS THE AREA.  AN EASTERN KANSAS SURFACE LOW IS LIKEWISE FORECAST  
TO SHIFT INTO/ACROSS MISSOURI WITH TIME.  AS MODEST DAYTIME HEATING  
OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS, INCREASING LOW-TOPPED, SURFACE-BASED CAPE  
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.   
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE  
UPPER LOW, AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- PARTICULARLY  
IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW -- A FEW  
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE.  AS SUCH, HAIL, AND A FEW  
DAMAGING GUSTS, WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND EVEN A TORNADO WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN THE COLD-CORE-TYPE SETUP.  AT THIS TIME, WILL INTRODUCE  
A MRGL RISK AREA, BUT UPGRADE TO SLGT COULD BE NECESSARY IN LATER  
OUTLOOKS.  
  

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[StormfanaticInd]

5 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

No surprise... day 2 moderate risk for tornadoes

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0102 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2022  
  
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z  
  
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
MISSISSIPPI...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADOES -- REMAINS EVIDENT OVER THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH -- EXTENDING FROM ARCTIC NORTH-CENTRAL  
CANADA TO MEXICO -- WILL STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S./PLAINS STATES  
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  A SURROUNDING/HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BELT OF  
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY, THOUGH FLANKING/STOUT  
RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER BOTH THE WESTERN AND EASTERN STATES THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS, THOUGH A  
DIGGING LOBE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF NEW  
MEXICO ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS, AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  
  
AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDING LOW SHOULD RESIDE OVER EASTERN KANSAS  
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS EAST TEXAS.  A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER  
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH THE  
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT -- MAKING THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE HIGHER  
THETA-E GULF BOUNDARY LAYER, WILL REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.  NORTHWARD  
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION TO THE  
COOLER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY.  
  
BY LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD, THE LOW SHOULD RESIDE OVER THE  
ILLINOIS VICINITY, WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  
   
..FAR EASTERN TEXAS TO ALABAMA  
  
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LIKELY  
TUESDAY, CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND  
VICINITY.  
  
THUNDERSTORMS -- AND ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK -- WILL BE ONGOING AT  
THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM EAST TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION.   
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION  
WILL OCCUR, AS PERSISTENT WARM SECTOR SOUTHERLIES ADVECT GULF  
MOISTURE NORTHWARD.  GIVEN VERY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ALOFT ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES, AND AIDED BY AN AMPLY UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS, STRONGLY ROTATING STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING,  
SPREADING OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND INTO LOUISIANA.  TORNADOES --  
INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT EVENTS -- REMAIN A LIKELIHOOD,  
ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.   
  
IN ADDITION TO THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS THAT WILL SPREAD  
EASTWARD WITH TIME ACROSS THE ENH AND EVENTUALLY MDT RISK AREAS,  
ISOLATED CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A ZONE OF STRONG  
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND.  ANY SUCH CELLS  
WOULD QUICKLY ACQUIRE UPDRAFT ROTATION, AND WOULD POSE POTENTIAL FOR  
SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING TORNADOES.  AS SUCH, SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE  
MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  
  
THE BOUNDS OF THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE RISK AREA REMAIN DIFFICULT  
TO DISCERN, AS VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL EXIST WELL NORTH, BUT WITH  
ONGOING/ELEVATED CONVECTION LIKELY TO LIMIT NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF  
MORE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR.  STILL, SEVERE STORM RISK CURRENTLY  
APPEARS TO EXTEND AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA.  
  
SEVERE/TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS  
THE COLD FRONT -- AND ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION -- ADVANCES.  
 AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS RISK MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS EASTERN  
ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE IN THE  
PERIOD.   
   
..FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI  
  
AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS AND ACROSS MISSOURI  
TUESDAY, COLD AIR ALOFT/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE  
ACROSS THE AREA.  AN EASTERN KANSAS SURFACE LOW IS LIKEWISE FORECAST  
TO SHIFT INTO/ACROSS MISSOURI WITH TIME.  AS MODEST DAYTIME HEATING  
OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS, INCREASING LOW-TOPPED, SURFACE-BASED CAPE  
WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.   
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE  
UPPER LOW, AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT -- PARTICULARLY  
IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW -- A FEW  
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE.  AS SUCH, HAIL, AND A FEW  
DAMAGING GUSTS, WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND EVEN A TORNADO WILL BE  
POSSIBLE IN THE COLD-CORE-TYPE SETUP.  AT THIS TIME, WILL INTRODUCE  
A MRGL RISK AREA, BUT UPGRADE TO SLGT COULD BE NECESSARY IN LATER  
OUTLOOKS.  
  

 

Looking like a solid moderate risk day. Hopefully the big tornadoes stay out of population centers

[ClicheVortex2014]

Last HRRR run before bed and it's pretty crazy

 

[Iceresistance]

There's already a little bit of Morning convection in Texas right now

[Cincysnow]

Looks like Adair will be in Texas chasing today (amongst many others I’m sure, but I tend to follow him). 
 

 

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk has now expanded into DFW

[ElectricStorm]

12z HRRR is much more discrete for today. I'm thinking we'll see a moderate at some point, unless the morning convection really puts a dent in potential, which is possible but probably not likely.

[ClicheVortex2014]

SPC mentions they might upgrade to a moderate risk later if the current near-term models continue. Having a day-1 and day-2 or day-2 and day-3 moderate risk happens a few times a year... usually in May... but pretty unusual in March.

  Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

   Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
   EAST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Several tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible,
   focused on central to eastern Texas and adjacent states. The primary
   severe threat should begin in mid to late afternoon and last through
   tonight. A few tornadoes could be strong.

   ...Northwest to south-central TX into far southern OK...
   A blossoming of elevated convective development is expected by
   midday as mid-level height falls overspread a strengthening warm
   theta-e advection regime. This activity will delineate the northern
   bounds of surface-based thunderstorms later today, with a pronounced
   baroclinic zone likely becoming established near the Red River
   border of OK/TX by 00Z. Along the western extent of this baroclinic
   zone will lie a surface cyclone drifting from the southern TX
   Panhandle near/south of the Childress vicinity. As robust mid-level
   DCVA occurs with a shortwave impulse ejecting out of the basal
   portion of an amplified trough, surface-based thunderstorm
   development is anticipated towards early to mid-afternoon near the
   triple-point cyclone and arcing south along the dryline during the
   late afternoon across portions of central to south-central TX. 

   With so much preceding precipitation falling within an initially dry
   boundary-layer in OK, the corridor of surface-based buoyancy near
   the triple-point cyclone is expected to be narrow. Nevertheless,
   cooling 500-mb temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates should
   foster potential for a few semi-discrete supercells along this upper
   portion of the Red River Valley. Severe hail and brief tornadoes
   will probably be the main hazards as convection likely spreads into
   a less favorable environment with northern extent in OK. 

   Convection farther southeast and south from north-central to
   south-central TX will have a progressively larger warm/moist sector
   ahead of the dryline. With MLCAPE likely to reach 1500-2000 J/kg in
   conjunction with an approaching 80-kt 500-mb speed max, several
   supercells should develop with a primary initial threat of very
   large hail. Much of the convective development will initially be
   west of the strong low-level jet across eastern TX/OK. The bulk of
   guidance suggests the low-level jet will shift east-northeast during
   the evening which suggests that low-level hodograph curvature and
   attendant SRH, while adequate for tornadoes, may not be particularly
   large for the supercells initiating along the dryline. Nevertheless,
   hourly HRRR runs along with the 00Z HRW-ARW are insistent on
   potential for a couple long-tracked supercells emanating northeast
   from the I-35 corridor in central/south-central TX into parts of
   east TX. If confidence increases in this scenario occurring, it is
   plausible that a mesoscale corridor of cat 4-MDT risk may be
   warranted in later outlooks.

 

[ElectricStorm]

Hearing some nice distant thunder walking toy next class. The downside is it might be pouring when this class is over. 

Also not really seeing a whole lot of convection in TX right now. If we start seeing some clearing down there that would be bad news. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Anticipating an upgrade to moderate risk. Got very favorable parameters and a large window for discrete or semi-discrete superells. Could be a pretty decent sized moderate risk, too, by the time the event starts.

Edited March 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

Moderate Risk in place for parts of Central & SE Texas, including Waco & Austin

[ClicheVortex2014]

geez

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Watch #1 coming. Product of the dryline meeting slightly better moisture near the triple point

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[ElectricStorm]

18z HRRR with a monster supercell my goodness

 

[ElectricStorm]

Severe watch up just a couple counties south of me 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Is Radarscope being funky for anyone else today? 

[ElectricStorm]

3 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

Is Radarscope being funky for anyone else today? 

Not yet but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes out. It's been going out a lot the past few months 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Here we go

   Mesoscale Discussion 0292
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

   Areas affected...Central/East TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 211923Z - 212130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Conditions are becoming more favorable for supercell
   thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including very large
   hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows a strong (i.e. 50-55 kt at
   850 mb) low-level jet throughout much of the warm sector. This
   mesoanalysis is verified by area 18Z soundings, with CRP and FWD
   sampling 55 kt and 65 kt at 850 mb, respectively. Some convective
   contamination may have contributed to the stronger winds at FWD, but
   the general expectation is for these strong winds to persist
   throughout the warm sector this afternoon and evening. 

   At the same time, strong moisture advection is contributing to air
   mass destabilization. Dewpoints increases around 4 deg F have
   occurred over the last 3 hours throughout much of central and
   eastern TX, with dewpoints now ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s in
   the AUS/CLL vicinity to low 60s across much of the Metroplex. Recent
   mesoanalysis indicates MLCIN has eroded across much of central TX.
   This is verified by a recent special sounding from St. Edwards
   University in Austin, which sampled limited convective inhibition
   remaining. Recent 18Z sounding from Texas A&M shows a bit more
   convective inhibition remaining.

   The improving thermodynamics, supercell wind profiles and gradually
   strengthening ascent all suggest the potential for discrete
   supercells capable of all severe hazards this afternoon, including
   very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in diameter) and tornadoes.
   Convective interference may limit the duration of any one discrete
   cell, but the environmental conditions do support potentially
   long-lived updrafts and intense supercells, particularly over
   central TX/TX Hill Country. A Tornado Watch will be needed this
   afternoon to cover this severe potential.

 

[ElectricStorm]

What the hodograph 

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Shows you the level of concern NWS has for this system. Pulling the kind of region wide soundings you'd see in a winter storm or hurricane

 

[Chinook]

20 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

What the hodograph 

 

To me it seems to be interesting that the official SCP calculation has changed. By the old formula, the SCP would have been (1527/1000)(716/50)(46/38.8769)= 25.9, where 46 = effective shear, in knots, and 38.8769 kt= 20 m/s

[ElectricStorm]

Not a great sign when you already are getting rotating supercells in the severe thunderstorm watch. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

ope