March 21-23, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[StormfanaticInd]

DAY THREE MODERATE RISK!!!😬

[snowlover2]

Quote

 Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 AM CDT Sun Mar 20 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

   CORRECTED MRGL RISK LINE

   ...SUMMARY...
   A substantial severe weather event -- including potential for
   significant tornadoes -- remains evident over the Lower Mississippi
   Valley/central Gulf Coast region Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A upper trough and expansive area of highly amplified cyclonic flow
   will shift gradually eastward across the central U.S. Tuesday, as a
   closed low likely evolves over the Mid Missouri Valley area with
   time.

   At the surface, a low is forecast to move across the Missouri
   vicinity through the day, with a trailing cold front forecast to
   reach the Mississippi Delta region during the afternoon.  Late in
   the period, the low should reside over the Illinois vicinity, with
   the cold front extend southward across Kentucky/Tennessee/Alabama to
   the Florida Panhandle.

   ...Lower Mississippi/central Gulf Coast States...
   A regional severe-weather outbreak -- including potential for
   several tornadoes (a few potentially significant) remains evident
   for Tuesday.  Severe storms -- including tornado risk -- will likely
   be ongoing at the start of the period across the Sabine River Valley
   area of east Texas/western Louisiana, as a surface cold front moves
   steadily eastward.

   As southerly flow ahead of the front continues to advect high
   theta-e air northward from the Gulf, limited heating will allow
   destabilization to occur through the morning and into the afternoon.
   At this time, it appears that in addition to storms occurring ahead
   of the advancing front, pre-frontal cellular convection will also
   evolve through late morning/afternoon.  With strong low-level
   southerly flow (50 to 70 kt at 850mb) in place, and 70 to 90 kt
   mid-level westerlies overspreading the region, shear very favorable
   for strong updraft rotation and low-level mesocyclones will exist. 
   As such, potential for strong tornadoes will exist with the evolving
   supercell storms ahead of the front.  Additionally, tornadoes (along
   with damaging winds and hail) will be likely with storms shifting
   eastward in tandem with the cold front.

   Into the evening and overnight, severe risk -- including potential
   for tornadoes and damaging winds -- will continue.  While
   diminishing somewhat later in the period, threat will likely spread
   across southern Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle.

   ..Goss.. 03/20/2022

 

 

[ElectricStorm]

Huge yikes...

Serious high risk potential here. The only hope may be a messier than normal storm mode. 

[Iceresistance]

There is a Hatched area for Tornadoes for Houston on D2

[Iceresistance]

9z SREF has a insane 90% contour on the STP over Louisiana

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

9z SREF has a insane 90% contour on the STP over Louisiana

Really solid indicator of a major tornado outbreak… but this far out? Easter 2020 vibes. Granted, that contour was larger… but still.

[Iceresistance]

14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Really solid indicator of a major tornado outbreak… but this far out? Easter 2020 vibes. Granted, that contour was larger… but still.

I'm mostly worried that it could get even higher than 90%

[Iceresistance]

Something is with the NAM model, keeps trending the STP & Supercell Composite North, found this Sounding west of DFW

[ElectricStorm]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I'm mostly worried that it could get even higher than 90%

90 is the highest it goes 

[Iceresistance]

Day 2 update any moment now

[ElectricStorm]

Still enhanced which is probably the right call with all the uncertainty and morning convection. However, parts of OK are now under a marginal risk. 

Edited March 20, 2022 by OKwx_2001

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Still enhanced which is probably the right call with all the uncertainty and morning convection. 

However, it's much larger. 

The Slight Risk has been extended to DFW & now I'm under a Marginal risk for all parameters, seems like the Triple Point situation for Oklahoma again

[Iceresistance]

15z SREF STP has REALLY increased in Oklahoma, particularity Central & Southern parts of the state, it appears that a Triple Point event is possible for the 2nd time this month in Oklahoma

[ClicheVortex2014]

HRRR is ugly. Long-duration event for Monday, and then it's showing hints of warm sector convection on Tuesday. Very intense squall, too.

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z CAMs will be our first look into Tuesday which will begin to give us an idea of how high the ceiling is for tornadoes. The presence or lack of warm sector convection tonight won’t be a deal breaker… but CAM consistency will be. We all know the parameters will be there but we know nothing about warm sector activity.

Day 2 high risk is theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely. Last time there was one was 10 years ago, and that was a textbook central Plains tornado outbreak setup with unusually high model agreement. This is much more murky and we can’t expect an upgrade from moderate risk, if it happens, until Tuesday afternoon. 

[snowlover2]

ILN saying there could be severe here on Wednesday.

Quote

Temperatures on Wednesday will warm into the 60s to lower 70s. There is still a signal for some severe potential on Wednesday if there can be enough breaks in the clouds. CIPS analog continue to highlight potential for Wednesday as well. Confidence is not quite high enough to include in the HWO at this time, however will continue to monitor to see if this addition will need to be made in the coming days. Outside of the severe threat expect breezy conditions Wednesday into Wednesday night.

 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

0z CAMs will be our first look into Tuesday which will begin to give us an idea of how high the ceiling is for tornadoes. The presence or lack of warm sector convection tonight won’t be a deal breaker… but CAM consistency will be. We all know the parameters will be there but we know nothing about warm sector activity.

Day 2 high risk is theoretically possible, but extremely unlikely. Last time there was one was 10 years ago, and that was a textbook central Plains tornado outbreak setup with unusually high model agreement. This is much more murky and we can’t expect an upgrade from moderate risk, if it happens, until Tuesday afternoon. 

The only way it's possible is if the models trend more dangerously with the storm system, more aggressive moisture return, even higher Wind Shear (Can get above 100 knots, O_O), stronger instability, & more isolated storm mode.

 

If this was in April/May with higher humidity & Instability, we would probably have a guaranteed High Risk on Day 2.  

[ClicheVortex2014]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The only way it's possible is if the models trend more dangerously with the storm system, more aggressive moisture return, even higher Wind Shear (Can get above 100 knots, O_O), stronger instability, & more isolated storm mode.

 

If this was in April/May with higher humidity & Instability, we would probably have a guaranteed High Risk on Day 2.  

We’re at the point where increasing parameters really doesn’t do too much. The question for this event now is storm mode. If there’s confidence in a large window for warm sector supercells, we’ll see a high risk. But that’s not something that we can be certain of… especially not this far out. It’s a nowcast kind of thing

Edited March 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

This is the LARGEST 90% STP Contour I've ever seen! 🤯

[ClicheVortex2014]

0z HRRR is mostly linear. Some warm sector cells but they’re displaced from the greatest parameters 

[ClicheVortex2014]

29 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

0z HRRR is mostly linear. Some warm sector cells but they’re displaced from the greatest parameters 

Still would be a widespread damaging wind event with probably a dozen or two tornadoes embedded in the squall.

You can see from UH tracks that there are some supercells embedded within the squall that could be relatively long-lived for embedded supercells. 

Overall, I think the risk areas need to be expanded north to cover more of Mississippi. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Here are the other CAMs. ARW represents the greatest overall threat... NSSL is more of a widespread damaging wind threat but the way it handles Monday seems very unlikely. Basically has no event for Texas. I feel pretty confident about throwing that out.

Edited March 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

HREF mean STP with UH tracks shows there's CAM agreement on likely supercells existing in the highest parameters.

Yes, that's a roughly 7 STP contour. 

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

0z HRRR is mostly linear. Some warm sector cells but they’re displaced from the greatest parameters 

I think the 00z HRRR has plenty of cells that are in the warm sector. The suite of CAM models show a lot of variability. I guess that is believable given the lack of cold-front forcing.  Some of the CAM models don't have too much in terms of cells in the enhanced outlook area. The WRF-NSSL really holds the convection pretty far west into the 12z-15z Tuesday time frame.  These days, I am always wondering what feature will make the situation -less- favorable for tornadoes, given our weird run of below-average tornado situations in Oklahoma and Kansas for years.

[ElectricStorm]

I think it's another tossup for the Day 1 outlook, leaning towards enhanced again. Could see a 15 hatched moderate at some point but I think they might wait until they see how the morning convection plays out. 

As for Day 2 it should stay moderate. Might see an expansion of the moderate a bit but any potential upgrade should be on the day of, which isn't a given of course.