ElectricStorm Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: This 18z GFS Sounding is over Southern Houston, the really scary part is that it's not contaminated, & if this verifies, it would warrant a High Risk of Tornadoes, in an area that rarely experiences this. (And if something like this stays consistent, then a unthinkable Day 3 High Risk is not out of the question) They don't do Day 3 high risks. And you can't just look for the PDS Tor sounding and automatically assume high risk 😂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said: They don't do Day 3 high risks. And you can't just look for the PDS Tor sounding and automatically assume high risk 😂 It's extremely difficult for a Day 3 High Risk to even happen, even the April 2012 Outbreak had a Day 3 Moderate Risk, then a Day 2 & 1 High Risk for Northern Oklahoma & Most of Kansas EDIT: I just looked & there were only 2 ever Day 2 High Risks, & they don't do a Day 3 High Risk. Edited March 16, 2022 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: It's extremely difficult for a Day 3 High Risk to even happen, even the April 2012 Outbreak had a Day 3 Moderate Risk, then a Day 2 & 1 High Risk for Northern Oklahoma & Most of Kansas EDIT: I just looked & there were only 2 ever Day 2 High Risks, & they don't do a Day 3 High Risk. Yes that's what we've been telling you 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted March 16, 2022 Share Posted March 16, 2022 18z gfs holding staedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 17, 2022 Below WPC images are valid for 12z Monday and Tuesday respectively. No dryline depicted (yet?) which is weird for a possibly significant severe weather event in Texas... but it looks like there'll be a triple point regardless. Greatest tornado threat will be in the warm sector and near the triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 17, 2022 Welp 0z GFS is still ridiculous 62 knot LLJ in NE TX near the triple point Just north of the Houston area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 17, 2022 Euro's continuing to be all over the place. GFS is changing a bit every run but it's not nearly as dramatic as Euro. And GFS is starting to lock in on a low placement while Euro is far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted March 17, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 17, 2022 SPC went with a Day 5 enhanced with some strong wording. Quote By Day 5/Monday, as the upper low moves northeastward across New Mexico toward the High Plains, a surface low is forecast to evolve over western Texas, and move toward western Oklahoma. As this occurs, continued advection of high theta-e Gulf air into roughly the eastern half of Texas will occur ahead of an advancing cold front. As the airmass diurnally destabilizes, an increase in storm coverage an intensity is expected. With very strong southwesterly/south-southwesterly flow aloft, atop south-southeasterlies at low levels, deep-layer shear will favor supercells, along with sufficient low-level shear to support potential for tornadoes -- a few possibly strong. Large hail and damaging winds are also expected. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Slight Risk is now in place for March 24th for the eastern side of Dixie Alley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 4 hours ago, Ingyball said: SPC went with a Day 5 enhanced with some strong wording. Not at all surprised with the 30% addition. With that wording about strong tornadoes, i think the possibilty of a day 3 moderate has increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 17, 2022 Share Posted March 17, 2022 Every day 3 moderate I've seen has become a big event. I think the most recent is 4/12/20. Day 3 moderates don't mess around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 17, 2022 (edited) This AFD was written before the day 5 enhanced was issued but it's a good reminder. This is from SHV. Our area looks to come under the gun Monday night into Tuesday, with there still being a few discrepancies in overall timing. Moisture will surge into the region under strong SW flow, with afternoon highs in the 70s anticipated. The atmosphere overhead will be absolutely loaded with wind shear. Forecast hodograph and wind profiles paint a "high-end" wind shear scenario. SFC-500mb wind barbs are darn near at a 90 degree angle, with Sfc-1km values at 40 knots, and sfc-3km values at 50 knots. The sfc-6km shear rounds off at 60 knots, which given the potential for limited instability, won`t be quite enough to tear storms apart as they form. Mid-level lapse rates will also be on the steep side, with some of the more aggressive values from 700-500mbs pushing 8.5 degrees p/km. From an instability standpoint, there is still quite the spread, but some of the normal values I`ve seen tonight are between 1000-1500 J/Kg in portions of East Texas on Monday evening. If this forecast were to verify, we`d be looking at supercells, and eventually a squall line, capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. While I certainly won`t commit to "strong tornadoes" this far out, especially without SPC collaboration, I can certainly mention this environment potentially being on that end of the spectrum. Mesoscale meteorology is a whole different monster however, so it only takes one ingredient out of place the day of the event to completely change the potential outcome (see May 20th, 2019 in OK and TX). Edited March 17, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 17, 2022 GFS is kinda coming down to Earth regarding Monday. Soundings still favor significant tornadoes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 17, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 17, 2022 Euro's finally starting to see serious potential further north into Texas. Still southwest of the enhanced risk but it's coming to its senses. I don't know why Euro has been so unreliable lately. Still has a more modest event for Tuesday but one day at a time I guess. Give it a few more runs maybe it'll wake up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 18, 2022 Strange wording for days 4 and 5. Got an enhanced risk both days but the most they really say is “a few tornadoes” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 18, 2022 (edited) 12z NAM should be crazy. 06z was already wild for 18z Monday. Central TX SE TX Edited March 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 18, 2022 SREF is kicking Monday off with a respectably large 30 sigtor contour for this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 When was the last time there was a D4 & D5 Enhanced risk at the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 18, 2022 18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: When was the last time there was a D4 & D5 Enhanced risk at the same time? Probably some time in April or May or June in the past few years. Pretty easy to get that in that time of year when you have a significant western trough. We'd have to look back much further to find an example in March... and there may not even be one because they started issuing enhanced risks beyond day 3 like 4-6 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 18, 2022 (edited) NAM was no surprise. High-end parameters East of Dallas Edited March 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 18, 2022 Share Posted March 18, 2022 1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: NAM was no surprise. High-end parameters East of Dallas Sounding is contaminated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 18, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Sounding is contaminated Yes but it's rather insignificant. Here's the area average sounding which cancels out the noise. Here's a sounding 3 hours prior that's upstream of that location with negligible contamination Edited March 18, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 18, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 18, 2022 It's weird because I was looking for something that showed highest SPC categories issued nationwide yesterday, then ustornadoes.com publishes this article today. https://www.ustornadoes.com/2022/03/18/maximum-tornado-probabilities-by-month-and-year/ To give you some perspective as to the highest tornado probabilities in this thread's threat region. Most of the region (E half of Texas/LA/S MS) has had a high risk for tornadoes at least once. But only MS has had a high risk for tornadoes in March. Elsewhere, only a moderate risk. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 19, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 19, 2022 0z NAM has quite the squall for Tuesday morning It's a pre-frontal, nocturnally developing squall so you can probably assume that it's on the verge of dying out... but that's pure speculation. Radar loop of it is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 19, 2022 Share Posted March 19, 2022 My guess is we'll see a Day 3 enhanced for Monday. Instability doesn't look like anything crazy right now but that's enough to get the job done and sometimes models underestimate it a bit. As of right now, I'm not really seeing a whole lot holding either Monday or Tuesday back right now but there's still enough time for things to change. Either way both days will likely be pretty big events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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