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March 21-23, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak


ClicheVortex2014

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38 minutes ago, NWsnowhio said:

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Areas affected...Eastern Indiana and western Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231640Z - 231845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is possible for portions of eastern Indiana and western Ohio. Deepening convection will eventually support a threat for severe hail and isolated damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Showers have developed in parts of north-central Kentucky and southern Indiana over the last hour. Recent NLDN data shows a flash or two of lightning has occurred. With mostly clear skies ahead of this north/northeastward moving activity, these showers/storms are expected to deepen over the next couple of hours. As this occurs, strong effective shear (40-50 kts), 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and cold temperatures aloft will support a threat for severe hail. Low-level lapse rates will be steep enough to support a threat for isolated damaging winds as well. While the tornado threat will remain low, there is some potential for stretching of vorticity along the subtle confluence zone/surface trough this afternoon. Should this occur, a brief tornado would be possible. A watch is possible this afternoon.

Hopefully thats a guideline and there's more leniency on the north end.  Toledo always just outside the risk area..

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18 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Latest HRRR has a really impressive UH swath in SE OH. Well, impressive in length.

 

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Yikes. Don't like seeing that streak through Lucas county. Think most of the threat will be south and east. But if we get a rumble of thunder ill consider it a win.

Edited by NWOhioChaser
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Just now, NWOhioChaser said:

Yikes. Don't like seeing that streak through Luca county.

Yeah...it's been blue skies and sunshine in Findlay for a few hours now. Up to 68 degrees in the backyard. Have a feeling we are in an interesting spot with the timing of this thing this afternoon.

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The northern slight risk has potential to overperform today IMO, especially the areas in the tornado watch. HRRR has many discrete/semi-discrete cells over there. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to a 10% unhatched enhanced risk but we'll see. 

Edited by OKwx_2001
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6 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

The northern slight risk has potential to overperform today IMO, especially the areas in the tornado watch. HRRR has many discrete/semi-discrete cells over there. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upgrade to a 10% unhatched enhanced risk but we'll see. 

This cell is severe warned and coming up towards my way. No rotation with it but it sure looks gnarly. Probably a good hail threat with any of the northern storms up this way.

Screenshot_20220323-145748_RadarScope.jpg

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3 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

They did mention that a tornado is possible with the storm

Terrain is far from favorable to spot one. Thankfully it looks like it's going north of town. Little less populated.

Might be heading for Joe Burrow's hometown, though.... The Plains which is just outside of Athens. It's a poor area but, from what I remember, more flat.

image.thumb.png.be9f3c31de84311f12c4d6c4709cc6c4.png

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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