March 21-23, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[snowlover2]

ILN latest.

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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Main Message:

Today could be an active weather day across the area with the chance
for strong to severe storms this afternoon. The storm threat is
expected to begin forming in southwest Ohio/eastern Indiana/northern
Kentucky in the late morning/early afternoon before rapidly
progressing northeast through central Ohio during the afternoon
hours. Discrete cells, possibly supercells, may pose a damaging wind
gust risk, large hail risk, and tornado risk as highlighted by the
Day 1 SPC convective outlook. The greatest risk for all modes of
severe weather is expected to be along and north of I-70 and along
and east of the Scioto River Valley during the afternoon.
Additionally, any storms that do become well developed will likely
move toward the northeast over at speeds in excess of 50 mph.

It is important to note that there is still a possibility that
enough destabilization does not occur and/or there is not enough
forcing for storms to form. However, given the conditional
probability for a environment capable of supporting strong storms,
the setup will be closely monitored.

Meteorological Setup:

As of early this morning, a surface low continues to spin off to the
west as it slowly drifts northeast into the Great Lakes. A warm
front east of the low continues to lift north through the area
bringing some light rain. Rain coverage will likely start to
diminish after the front passes north by 8AM thanks to weak forcing
east of the low.

Shortly after 8 AM, the warm front reaches northeastern Ohio leaving
the region in the open warm sector east of a pressure trough and
cold front rotating in from the southwest. Theta E advection in the
southerly flow will help dew points rise into the middle 50s, and
perhaps approach 60 by noon. Increasing low level moisture, daytime
heating, and cold air aloft (steep lapse rates) may eventually lead
to destabilization late in the morning/early afternoon with MLCAPE
reaching 500-1000 J/kg. Instability and steep lapse rates could
overlap with strong shear (Effective Bulk shear over 70 knots)
thanks to a 90-100 knot mid level speed max moving overhead. This
thermodynamic and kinematic environment, should it occur, would lead
to favorable conditions for strong to severe storms this afternoon.
The best overlap of these parameters is most likely to occur
along/north of I-70 and in/east of the Scioto River Valley during
the afternoon.

Assuming destabilization occurs, any storms that form are expected
to take advantage of the favorable environment this afternoon as the
previously mentioned pressure trough and front approach from the
southwest. Shear will be largely perpendicular to the boundary which
lends to a discrete storm mode being likely as storms that form near
the boundary are likely to move off the boundary and into the open
warm sector. The discrete storm mode, along with the possibility of
backing of winds ahead of the pressure trough (which increases shear
and low level SRH), leads to increased potential for rotating
updrafts and severe storms with all modes of severe weather
possible. Given the possibility for storms in what could be a
favorable environment (if enough instability develops), SPC slight
risk has been issued for parts of the area with up to 15% wind, 15%
hail, and 5% tornado probabilities. Also noteworthy is the speed at
which any storm would move, likely around 50-60 knots.

The storm threat rapidly diminishes behind the pressure trough in
the later afternoon.

 

 

[TLChip]

Looks like another active day.

 

HRRR Radar

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HRRR STP

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[Cincysnow]

2 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

ILN latest.

 

I70/North - we’re familiar with that verbiage down this way, sounds just like winter. 

[Cincysnow]

Louisville has a good write up

Spoiler

National Weather Service Louisville KY 704 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Mar 23 2022 ...A Few Strong Storms Possible This Afternoon... A deep upper level trough continues to translate eastward over the Plains early this morning, with Fujiwhara interaction of several shortwave disturbances. One of these mid-level waves will rotate northeast over the region this morning. Increasing jet dynamics will advect over central KY and southern IN early in the day. We are in the left exit region of a strengthening ~125 kt jet over TX/LA. 100+ kt winds at 500 mb will nose into the region later this morning and move over central/eastern KY this afternoon. A narrow zone of enhanced low-level convergence is already noted this morning over the Pennyrile. This is roughly near the sfc occluded front, with the main cold front draped south through the Mississippi River Valley. 999 mb sfc low is analyzed near the Quad Cities this morning and will continue northeast across northern Illinois and Lower Michigan today into tonight, dragging the cold front east through the forecast area. Central Kentucky and southern Indiana are in the warm sector this morning with a theta-e ridge axis in place. Temperatures are quite mild in the 60s, with dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s. The atmosphere has been stable up to this point with little in the way of thunder. Going forward, there is a slight chance (10-20 percent) for a rumble of thunder along and west of I-65 through 12z. Scattered to numerous showers are expected through 12z given the increase in forcing. After sunrise, coverage should be more scattered in nature. PW values actually drop steadily through the morning with the arrival of drier air aloft. Given the decrease in precipitable water and the lack of significant destabilization today, flooding is not much of a concern outside of brief, minor ponding. With much drier air aloft, there will be opportunities for pockets of sunshine to boost sfc heating ahead of the cold front. In general, modest boundary layer destabilization is expected over the eastern CWA. Widely scattered cellular development is expected late morning through early evening in a very high shear, low CAPE environment. There may be a brief window this afternoon for a few strong low-topped supercells. Appreciable sfc-based instability looks most likely northeast of a line from Salem IN to Taylorsville KY to Lake Cumberland (roughly the SPC Day 1 Marginal Risk area). The Bluegrass Region has the (relative) best chance at seeing a strong storm. Isolated strong to damaging winds are the primary threat. Fast, unidirectional wind profile and a long straight hodograph would favor splitting storms, but CAPE may not be sufficient to sustain a vertical updraft in the presence of extreme wind shear. Low-level SRH actually looks fairly weak despite the extreme deep layer shear. So think the tornado and large hail risk is pretty low. Marginal severe risk is likely done by 21z with convection racing off to the northeast. CAA behind the front steepens lapse rates and will result in gusty winds this afternoon and evening. Gusts over 30 mph are likely. The weather mostly dries out this evening and tonight with temperatures dropping into the 40s.

 

[OHValleysnow]

The sun is shining in Liberty Township OH now.  That may not bode well for us when storms start.  64 degrees already.  

[Cincysnow]

37 minutes ago, OHValleysnow said:

The sun is shining in Liberty Township OH now.  That may not bode well for us when storms start.  64 degrees already.  

Clouds are thinning out a bit

[Bman10]

Clearing out here in north dayton 

[cer5059]

 

[NWOhioChaser]

Suns starting to poke out here as well! 

[Bman10]

7 minutes ago, cer5059 said:

 

that’s INSANE view 

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm really salty that E OH is in a slight risk for all severe weather modes and SW OH isn't. That happened so few times when I lived in Athens.

[snowlover2]

8 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'm really salty that E OH is in a slight risk for all severe weather modes and SW OH isn't. That happened so few times when I lived in Athens.

They did put Dayton back in the slight risk at the 9am update.

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, snowlover2 said:

They did put Dayton back in the slight risk at the 9am update.

Right but E OH looks like a better bet today.

So far a total of 75 tornado reports from this event. Monday's count is still going up, although slower and slower... but Tuesday's should go up by a lot in the coming days.

We had about 120 tornado reports year-to-date before this.

Edited March 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Cincysnow]

Not much change in the updated day 1 convective outlook: 

Spoiler

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated damaging winds are possible across the Midwest and Upper Ohio Valley vicinity this afternoon. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging winds may occur across the Southeast today through tonight. ...Ohio Valley/Midwest... A substantial shortwave impulse over the Ark-La-Miss will move northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes through this evening. An attendant intense mid-level speed max (at or above 110-kt at 500-mb) will become centered from central Kentucky to the northern Mississippi/Alabama border area by 21Z. While the primary surface cyclone will drift east-northeast across parts of northern Illinois, a secondary low should develop within the exit region of the mid-level jet across west-central to northwest Ohio along the arcing baroclinic zone. Cloud breaks to the west of stratiform rain across the central Appalachians should yield a pocket of modest buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg), as a corridor of mid to upper 50s surface dew points become established within the thermal axis near the Ohio/West Virginia/Kentucky border area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop through early/mid afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau and spread northeast across the Upper Ohio Valley. Very strong effective shear in excess of 70 kt should yield a highly elongated hodograph, and foster at least a few discrete splitting supercells. Optimal low-level hodographs may only be present in the early portion of the convective life cycle within the narrow warm/moist sector, lowering confidence of a greater severe threat. Nevertheless, the presence of the surface warm front suggests a few tornadoes and scattered large hail appear possible aside from damaging winds, with this risk expected to be relatively maximized across western West Virginia into much of east/southeast Ohio. On the northwest periphery of the risk area(s), in closer relative proximity to the surface low, some severe storms will also be possible in vicinity of the narrow warm/moist sector across eastern/northern Indiana and west/northwest Ohio into Lower Michigan. This includes the potential for severe hail and isolated damaging winds, and possibly a couple of brief tornadoes. Regarding a tornado risk, near-boundary maximized vorticity and steep lapse rates/ample low-level CAPE may be potential compensatory factors for less supercell-favorable wind profiles with west/northwestward extent across far western Ohio into northern/eastern Indiana and Lower Michigan. ...Southeast States including Florida to Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic... At least some broad severe potential exists across the region today into tonight, although details lack clarity even in the relative short term. Considerable convection is ongoing at midday from northern Florida into southeast Georgia, with other more scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, along with widespread cloudiness, within the broad pre-cold front warm sector. Height falls will be weak/nil across the Southeast, and low-level winds will tend to weaken over time, but nonetheless remain moderately strong, with the longest duration of robust wind profiles persisting across the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may further develop and diurnally intensify this afternoon through early evening within the warm conveyor region from the Georgia/South Carolina border area northward into North Carolina/possibly Virginia in the wake of a leading swath of showers. Boundary-layer heating is expected to be limited and mid-level lapse rates weak, suggesting that MLCAPE should only reach around 500 J/kg. This may be enough to support a conditional supercell threat near the advancing cold front and/or along the coastal Carolinas tonight, given the favorable low-level SRH. An isolated damaging wind/tornado risk would be the primary risks across the broad region. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 03/23/2022

 

[NWsnowhio]

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana and western Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231640Z - 231845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is possible for portions of eastern Indiana and western Ohio. Deepening convection will eventually support a threat for severe hail and isolated damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Showers have developed in parts of north-central Kentucky and southern Indiana over the last hour. Recent NLDN data shows a flash or two of lightning has occurred. With mostly clear skies ahead of this north/northeastward moving activity, these showers/storms are expected to deepen over the next couple of hours. As this occurs, strong effective shear (40-50 kts), 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and cold temperatures aloft will support a threat for severe hail. Low-level lapse rates will be steep enough to support a threat for isolated damaging winds as well. While the tornado threat will remain low, there is some potential for stretching of vorticity along the subtle confluence zone/surface trough this afternoon. Should this occur, a brief tornado would be possible. A watch is possible this afternoon.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Just now, NWsnowhio said:

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana and western Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 231640Z - 231845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is possible for portions of eastern Indiana and western Ohio. Deepening convection will eventually support a threat for severe hail and isolated damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Showers have developed in parts of north-central Kentucky and southern Indiana over the last hour. Recent NLDN data shows a flash or two of lightning has occurred. With mostly clear skies ahead of this north/northeastward moving activity, these showers/storms are expected to deepen over the next couple of hours. As this occurs, strong effective shear (40-50 kts), 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and cold temperatures aloft will support a threat for severe hail. Low-level lapse rates will be steep enough to support a threat for isolated damaging winds as well. While the tornado threat will remain low, there is some potential for stretching of vorticity along the subtle confluence zone/surface trough this afternoon. Should this occur, a brief tornado would be possible. A watch is possible this afternoon.

Took like 8 months last year to get a severe tstorm watch. Might get one before April this year. Interesting.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Got some strong cells in SE IN

[ElectricStorm]

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Incredible system and setup for the OV. That jet streak is insane. Lucky this is March with marginal moisture.

 

[TLChip]

Looks like it may start to get a little rowdy. 
 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Latest HRRR has a really impressive UH swath in SE OH. Well, impressive in length.

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

1 Confirmed Death in New Orleans.

[ClicheVortex2014]

okay then

[TLChip]

Might have to watch to coast later, not extremely high signals but they’re still there and this system has been spinning them up. 

HRRR STP

[NWsnowhio]

1 minute ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

okay then

Oh wow...and we are off and running already.