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March 21-23, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak


ClicheVortex2014

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  • Meteorologist
16 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Yeah as snowlover2 mentioned earlier I'm surprised they didn't issue a TOR-E for New Orleans. That seemed to be the definition of one to me but I'm not the expert. 

TOR-E takes the whole input of the office and you better be dang sure when you issue one. However, this probably the time to issue one. Someone should have been going through tweets looking for the videos that were shared here. I suspect had they seen the footage of a large tornado with power flashes they probably would have issued it. 

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14 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

HRRR sounding for... West Virginia... tomorrow

 

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What in tarnation

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That's the 2z run. Here's the 0z run to show the whole day. I'm actually pretty impressed with this setup... seems to be a solid discrete storm mode kind of day which is pretty rare around here. The big limiting factor for tornadoes might be low-level moisture because everything else is pretty solid.

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Check out these hooks in NE OH. The one SW of Akron is nasty.

 

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Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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  • The title was changed to March 21-23, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak
  • Meteorologist

Dayton's back to a marginal risk. 5% tornado for E OH/NW WV

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1255 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2022  
  
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS...OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE, HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT  
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, CAROLINAS,  
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.  
   
..SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS  
  
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS A PRONOUNCED 90 TO 110 KNOT JET MOVES  
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD  
FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD THE FRONT ACROSS  
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA EXTENDING  
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS LINE  
SHOULD HOLD INTACT AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
GEORGIA THIS MORNING. INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE  
COMBINED WITH MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL MAKE CONDITIONS  
FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ASSOCIATED WITH  
BOWING SEGMENTS AND ROTATING CELLS WITHIN THE LINE.  
  
FURTHER NORTH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY  
IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS INSTABILITY  
INCREASES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE  
CENTRAL CAROLINAS AT 21Z HAVE MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG WITH STRONG  
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70  
KNOT RANGE BEING ENHANCED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHWEST.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER AND MORE  
DISCRETE CELLS. ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SHORT BOWING  
LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE THE MORE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE. A WIND-DAMAGE  
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CAROLINAS AND  
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.  
   
..OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI TODAY AS A  
90 TO 110 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD  
ACROSS OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION  
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S F IN  
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY  
DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT  
FROM ILLINOIS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL  
KENTUCKY. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO  
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
  
THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY  
TODAY. THIS WILL CREATE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAKING  
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SOMEWHAT WIDELY-SPACED SEVERE STORMS. RAP  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM WESTERN  
WEST VIRGINIA INTO CENTRAL OHIO HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING AT 1500 J/KG,  
AND SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR AT EXTREME LEVELS IN THE 95 TO 105 KNOT RANGE.  
THIS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL.  
A FEW OF THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL,  
ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE  
LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON  
AND EARLY EVENING WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP.  

 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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