Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, TLChip said: First post here, was wondering why the other place has been so dead. Thanks @ClicheVortex2014 for all these great posts again. HRRR STP pretty strong the next couple hours 5 minutes ago, Hassaywx1223 said: Like to say thanks for the new site and I’ll be donating. Couldn’t figure out why the old site was so dead. Everyone stay safe that are ahead of these storms today Good to see some familiar names 😁 Edited March 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 That warm sector cell will probably merge with the squall soon so it's potential has likely gone down, which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 QLCS tornadoes like to hide on the northern part of bowing segments. I spy at least 3 possible tornadoes. At this rate, this could be quite the prolific tornado day even without warm sector storms. These tornadoes are weak but spin up quick. They'll likely be disguised as damaging wind reports until offices get out to survey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 Just now, OKwx_2001 said: That warm sector cell will probably merge with the squall soon so it's potential has likely gone down, which is good What's concerning to me is although that supercell never went tornado or even severe warned, it represents a larger trend of warm sector cells getting more and more organized. If this trend continues, it's only a matter of time until they actually produce. And it's only 1:40pm local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 ok LIX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Could mean trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 First warm sector tornado warning. It's got some time before it runs into the squall but the mesocyclone has been so persistent that it's likely to live on in the squall at least briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 Several cells with decent mid-level mesos in south-central MS Newest mesoanalysis says this area is in an extremely favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 Southern half of the squall is getting tornadic now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Southern half of the squall is getting tornadic now too The Supercell near Decatur is really acting like there's a tornado on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 Took a while but there's a tornado on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Strong meso down by Heidelberg. Not warned yet but could be soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Central Illinois Posted March 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 22, 2022 My friend in Mississippi said they were letting schools out early this morning to get ahead of this event! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Some semi discreet cells building ne of New Orleans / south Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Whole line of mesos by the MS/AL border. Dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 Conditions are kinda favorable for supercells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Kinda surprised the warning doesn’t move here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 Warm sector supercells are starting to go tornado warned earlier. HRRR says parameters should continue to increase in the next hour or so, weaken a bit, then re-strengthen as the sun sets and presumably low-level shear increases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Big meso here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Sudden Spike of Tornado Reports in Mississippi, it looks like that Edwards & Goodman got hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Also, the Jacksboro, TX Tornado has been rated EF3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bman10 Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 Could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, Bman10 said: Could be a problem Yup I was just about to post that. Pretty classic looking supercell. Big compared to many of the supercells we've seen today. Plenty of room to run. Edited March 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 22, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted March 22, 2022 SPC just mentioned this supercell DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts a broken QLCS from the TN/AL border into southeast LA, which continues to progress eastward with time. This QLCS has an extensive history of producing damaging gusts and tornadoes. Immediately ahead of the squall, semi-discrete supercells have recently demonstrated transient periods of strong low-level rotation, with up to 40 kt rotational velocities noted on some storms (i.e. Wayne County, MS). The 2207Z MOB VWP depicts long, curved hodographs, bearing near 400 m2/s2 SRH in the 0-1 km layer alone, indicative of ample low-level shear for surface-based, sustained supercell structures to produce tornadoes. Latest deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble guidance also depict an appreciable concentration of mid-level rotation tracks along the southeast MS/southwest AL border over the next couple of hours, and this is where the greatest short-term tornado potential resides. The George County, MS supercell may have the best tornado potential since it has the longest residence time in the warm sector with unimpeded inflow. The George County, MS supercell may have the best tornado potential since it has the longest residence time in the warm sector with unimpeded inflow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 22, 2022 Share Posted March 22, 2022 (edited) Just keeps coming, tomorrow afternoon increasing chances farther north. Current Quote HRRR Simulated Quote HRRR STP Quote Edited March 23, 2022 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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