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Sun Activity | Auroras


MaineJay

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1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

My wife is gonna side eye me big time - I've been putting off her " I wanna go to Iceland" for the past several months  now. 

 

Maybe if I set the alarm just a bit earlier, she'll see them here and back off. 

 

image.thumb.png.9242faac65a085188f6a9bce6b83fd76.png

Same sunspot just exploded again this time stronger.  A X9.1 strongest flare on the current cycle.   Preliminary reports suggest another halo CME was launched.   Very exciting times again.

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8 minutes ago, Rush said:

Tomorrow night will be the night.  Hoping we can break KP8 and have a repeat of May.

 

https://x.com/NWSSWPC/status/1841949175585419434?t=HUBOrKtq-SqNxBYJu3ArGw&s=19

During May they were also only forecasting a G3 storm but stated it had potential for more.    That one was a Cannibal CME where later blasts caught up with earlier blasts and the energy combined right when it hit Earth,   The same thing can happen here as the CME from the X9.1 was significantly more potent.    This is also the time of year where CMEs have more of an effect on the magnetic sphere according to NASA.

I would bet on this on exceeding G3 and possibly competing with May.

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Got up to 7.5 last night.  Seemed to peak more out west.  I saw photos as far south as Texas.  My phone did trigger an alert but didn't go past my DND settings.  Need to fix that.  Don't think it would have been anything spectacular here.  Anyone up north stay up?

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20 hours ago, Rush said:

Got up to 7.5 last night.  Seemed to peak more out west.  I saw photos as far south as Texas.  My phone did trigger an alert but didn't go past my DND settings.  Need to fix that.  Don't think it would have been anything spectacular here.  Anyone up north stay up?

Saw nothing, then again, Long Island lights up the sky by itself.  So any faint auroras will be drowned out.

 

Long Island Sound Region at Night

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On 10/8/2024 at 4:05 AM, Rush said:

Got up to 7.5 last night.  Seemed to peak more out west.  I saw photos as far south as Texas.  My phone did trigger an alert but didn't go past my DND settings.  Need to fix that.  Don't think it would have been anything spectacular here.  Anyone up north stay up?

Clouded out up here. Forecasts are decent for tonight though

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9 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Clouded out up here. Forecasts are decent for tonight though

Going crazy already in Asia.  Should be good tonight. 

 

KP8 right now.  9+ tonight possible??

Edited by Rush
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Hoping to see them in SE PA tonight.  Looking very promising right now:

 

estimated-planetary-k-in (1).png

 

Here is the briefing from SWPC on the CME event yesterday explaining the various models and observations/measurements they have to predict the geomagnetic severity - very interesting!  

 

Edited by Shipwreck
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8 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Bz is rising a bit, need to see that -20 or lower, as in more negative.

I had to look that up - so Bt is the magnitude of the solar wind magnetic field, and Bz is the orientation.  So I gather if it is strongly negative it is aligned southward, making a stronger interaction with the earth's magnetic field? Do I understand that correctly?  

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12 minutes ago, Rush said:

Just got my first alert from my app.

Getting a little excited. Still 60-75% cloud cover, but I expect it to clear. Too windy for a drone right now though, really hoping to try a time lapse with it, so hope it dies down.

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