Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I dunno.. getting that feeling of downplaying because it was warm recently, the sun, and it's March, only to see the evening news folks be like, "well that was a surprise!" 🤷♂️ It's seems like a longer duration event, light snow most of the time over 12 hours with marginal temps. When it's lighter snow, it may not stick to surfaces exposed to the sun, particularly pavement. When it's heavier, it could accumulate on roads. That's all the news cares about anyway, the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, StretchCT said: It's seems like a longer duration event, light snow most of the time over 12 hours with marginal temps. When it's lighter snow, it may not stick to surfaces exposed to the sun, particularly pavement. When it's heavier, it could accumulate on roads. That's all the news cares about anyway, the roads. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 CTP PM update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Nice visual from CTP - regarding the dreaded SA issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 hours ago, StretchCT said: It's seems like a longer duration event, light snow most of the time over 12 hours with marginal temps. When it's lighter snow, it may not stick to surfaces exposed to the sun, particularly pavement. When it's heavier, it could accumulate on roads. That's all the news cares about anyway, the roads. Exactly. Not to mention, this time of year the sun angle actually 'eats' about 1/2" hr. So, one inch an hr leads to a half inch an hr per day (of course, as the snow accumulates I'm various areas, this starts to reverse due to a colder surface. Likewise, blacktop - even though clouds and precip - absorbs the uv rays of the sun pretty well. This allows for blacktop to be rather warm through the event. So unless we get a good heavy burst of snow to really whiten the ground up - I don't see this being anything more than mood snow, even if it does accumulate on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 All the other models are pointing to 1" or 1.something" but the NAM is going for 6 inches. I think its about time we start testing the models for steroids just like they do in sports. NAM definitely on something for the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2022 Temps are still rather warm across the area. 46/25 at BWI right now back at home upper 30's with dews in the low 20's. Wet bulb down here should yield rain mix toward the PA/MD border and probably manage just snow up toward home. Temps will still be way too warm for many areas to accumulate on the road around I 95. Allentown and NW should manage to have some slushy roads northern NJ and CT. While temps are cooler along LI and NYC area they may struggle to accumulate much on roads given time of day will be hard for more than wet roads. If they manage 1" per hours rates plus then it could start to create some slush on side roads and ramps. Widespread 1-3" still in play NW of 95 in the mid atlantic and north of PA/MD border but advisories highlight the areas where accums could be upwards of 3-5" and road issues. Elevation starting to become key again for snow potential as we get closer to equinox. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 9, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 9, 2022 SREF trend Latest NAM FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2022 Skew T at 00z shows quite a bit of dry air aloft so temps in the upper levels should still be rather supportive of white rain for a bit south of PA/MD overnight again should not accum much. May end up almost all snow in locations NW of 95 and north of PA/MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, StretchCT said: SREF trend Latest NAM FV3 Looks like it took a little south jog on the last run. It will be really telling of what rates look like. Who knows may have some small surprises in the areas south of the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 8" to 0" in a couple miles on 3k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2022 Just now, MDBlueridge said: 8" to 0" in a couple miles on 3k Whats your elevation by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Yes sirs, still liking 2", maybe 3" on the grass here. Down to 35 with no wind.. cool that grass! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2022 Just now, JDClapper said: Yes sirs, still liking 2", maybe 3" on the grass here. Down to 35 with no wind.. cool that grass! You are in a nice spot for this week. Should be a fun one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Whats your elevation by chance? 1600' for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 9, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted March 9, 2022 1 minute ago, MDBlueridge said: 1600' for this one Surprised sterling didn't throw some advisories out that way but I guess it is really nothing new lol State college always forgets about Lanc and york area since Mt holly and Sterling don't want us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Surprised sterling didn't throw some advisories out that way but I guess it is really nothing new lol State college always forgets about Lanc and york area since Mt holly and Sterling don't want us. Wont be surprised if we go with the classic Sterling HWO to WSW lol Happens a couple times a year in washington, allegheny, and garrett counties along the ridges 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 9, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 9, 2022 9pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Here are the 0z shots. Euro is 18z and most bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 00z Euro back down a notch - still seems to favor C PA from the mid section on up. METAR is crazy with 39F air temp and 26Dp, with IP and RA just now commencing. Can't recall the last time our T and Dp were so spread at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 The wet bulb freezing line is absolutely delineating the non frozen from the frozen. Currently it's directly over my backyard or close to it and I have all three precip types falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 32 and flurries starting. 68% humidity on my PWS, so about 22dp, 27 wet bulb, which is darn close to what UTS2 showed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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