HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z HRRR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Qpf looking real nice in many places! Back my way, 0.4, 0.5" qpf quite possible. I am inclined to think 2-3" is likely here, with a potential 4-5" if we are a degree cooler or get in a heavier band for a bit. Yes, it was 70+ Sunday and it was glorious. That doesn't matter tomorrow. 32-35 degrees with thick cloud cover and various snow rates matter tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted March 8, 2022 Admin Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said: King CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Truth is sometimes inconvenient 🤣 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said: AFDCTP Good thing I speak WX. Also previously mentioned snow depth vs. Kuchera. Strangely, the snowdepth map from the Euro is higher for me than Kuchera. Haven't really seen that before. NAM on the other hand is a fraction of the Kuchera. Edited March 8, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 Latest runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMirg Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Ground cooled off in a hurry up here.... what falls on zee knob probably stick pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 (edited) 14 minutes ago, BigMirg said: Ground cooled off in a hurry up here.... what falls on zee knob probably stick pretty good. Yeah was in the 60s yesterday and sever thunderstorm warning less than 12 hrs ago now we have a dusting of snow snow just blowing all over pavement. Makes me thibk if we can get snow to start tomorrow while it's still at or below freezing we will probably see accumulating snow on all surfaces especially if get moderate bands. Edited March 8, 2022 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z RDPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Wow 12z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z Euro Snow Depth, widespread 2-5", sign me up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 CTPs early bets from this morning. Hedging low valleys, ridge tops more. Understandable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, JDClapper said: CTPs early bets from this morning. Hedging low valleys, ridge tops more. Understandable. Indeed. SLR will be abysmal for most of PA - even at best they'll be <10:1, I suspect. Euro shows nearly 6 for my BY, but as we've discussed Depth maps nearly half that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z Euro, CMC, GFS, 12kNAM SD product (UKM not shown b/c Piv, at my package price point does not have SD for that model) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 Ukie and Rap. Ukie only has 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 Long range HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 15z sref are getting silly for interior PA. Snowing by 7am. Mean way up to 4.4". Clusters around 4", but numerous members in the 5-7" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, JDClapper said: 15z sref are getting silly for interior PA. CT too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 19 minutes ago, StretchCT said: CT too Woah baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDBlueridge Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Looking super elevation dependent along the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said: Looking super elevation dependent along the M/D line. CTP mentions the diff elev will make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 Upton didn't update on the site yet. Albany/BGM have WWAs out. Left out the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 8, 2022 Moderators Share Posted March 8, 2022 Drink!!! UPTON AFD mentions the dreaded sun angle. Spoiler .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As high pressure pushes off the east coast, weak low pressure over the Gulf States will trek northeast toward the southeast US coast and eject off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday morning. Much of Wednesday night will be dry, with only a slight chance for precipitation after midnight. Lows will be near or just above normal, ranging from the middle 20s to middle 30s. The low will slowly strengthen as it is forecast to pass south and east of Long Island, and east of the 40/70 benchmark as well. This will help to keep the colder air in place. Looking at forecast soundings and thicknesses, it appears that precipitation could start off as all snow for most places, except perhaps the city, where it may start off as rain/snow mix. However even here precipitation may start off as all snow. As the day progresses on Wednesday, rain will begin to mix as the lower levels warm up, especially along coastal areas. By the afternoon, a rain/snow mix is expected everywhere except well inland areas. In fact, 850-1000 hPa thicknesses in all the deterministic models show that we do not completely change over to all rain for the entire area, including the coast, and that a wintry mix will occur the entire day. It is not out of the question that much more of the area remains all snow, especially if the NBM temperatures are too warm (lowered NBM temperatures for this forecast period). Those areas that do change to a rain/snow mix may change over to all snow as heavier precipitation moves in and cools the column. The other factor that makes this is a challenging forecast is how late in the season it is, and the relatively high sun angle of March. Even if the entire areas remains all snow, much of what falls will likely only accumulate on non paved surfaces and roads will probably remain just wet. Did increase snowfall amounts across the area, with around half an inch to just under an inch for metro northeast New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island. Amounts increase as you head north, with 1-3 inches across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern Connecticut. Higher elevations will see closer to 3 inches. A reasonable worst case scenario is 1-2 inches for metro New Jersey, New York City, and Long island, and just over 3 to 4 inches across portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southwestern Connecticut. Liquid equivalent amounts of 1/3 to just over 1/2 inch are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 I dunno.. getting that feeling of downplaying because it was warm recently, the sun, and it's March, only to see the evening news folks be like, "well that was a surprise!" 🤷♂️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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