StormfanaticInd

Man Thursday and Friday is starting to look very interesting.

It is oppressive outside with mid to upper 70s dews 🥵

That was a really good storm.

Very dark outside

New warning for 70mph winds Indy

Very impressive storm to my west here in Indy!

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OHIO INTO PORTIONS WEST VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible on Saturday from parts of Ohio into northern West Virginia/Maryland, central and western Pennsylvania, and western New York. ...Ohio Valley to the Northeast... Several vorticity maxima are forecast to migrate across the region within an area of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the main upper shortwave trough progressing from the Upper Midwest to the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, low pressure will spread east/northeast from the upper Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec. As this occurs, strong theta-e advection on southwesterly low-level flow will result in a very moist airmass spreading north/northeast from the Midwest into much of the Northeast. Early cloudiness and periods of showers may limit diurnal destabilization from eastern PA into NY. Pockets of stronger instability will overlap 30-40 kt westerly midlevel flow from parts of Ohio into western/central PA/NY. While midlevel lapse rates will remain quite poor, sufficient effective shear magnitudes amid rich boundary-layer moisture should support organized clusters and line segments capable of strong/damaging gusts. Vertically veering low-level winds will support somewhat enlarged and curved hodographs, with sufficient low-level instability and 0-1 km SRH. In addition to damaging gusts, a couple of tornadoes also will be possible. A more conditional risk may exist from late evening into the early overnight hours across parts of northern NY into VT as the surface front impinges on the area and the main upper shortwave trough ejects eastward. Strong vertical shear will be in place amid a very moist airmass. However, convection may remain elevated given poor timing with the diurnal cycle and impacts from daytime convection. If convection can become surface-based, damaging gusts will be possible.

Really have to take these hi res models with a grain of salt. Hrrr is not even handling the current storms in southern Wisconsin correctly

Storms in southern Wisconsin look interesting.

That's beyond crazy lol

Going to be very interesting to see how tonight and tomorrow play out. Big time wind potential pending how things develop

Now approaching 8000 surface cape 🧐

Extreme instability building. Might need a moderate risk???

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley as well over portions of the southern High PLains and the Florida Peninsula. Isolated severe thunderstorms are most likely across the east-central and southeast Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern Ontario early Thursday before then progressing southeastward into the Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. During this same period, upper ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features, extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into central TX. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Northern/eastern portion of this front is expected to remain progressive, moving off the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday morning. Mid-level temperatures across the region preceding the front will be warm, with associated poor mid-level lapse rates. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 60s will help support modest buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Much of the stronger mid-level flow will be displaced west of the front, keeping vertical shear modest and limiting storm organization. ...Southeast into the Southern Plains... Southern/western portion of front is expected to be less progressive, only making modest southerward push across TX and the Southeast while becoming increasingly diffuse. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of this front, particularly from GA into NC. A secondary push of continental air will likely become a more defined frontal zone from OK into the Mid-South/TN Valley, with some chance for afternoon/evening thunderstorm development ahead of this front from the TX Panhandle into central OK. A few stronger storms are possible, but weak shear is currently expected to limit severe potential.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. Storms will be capable of large hail, and a cluster potentially capable of destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level trough will continue to transition eastward and modestly amplify over the Canadian Prairies, with southern-peripheral height falls and strengthening westerlies from North Dakota/northern Minnesota toward the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. In this same corridor, a weak MCV may be evolving this morning over eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota, while these scattered thunderstorms will probably also influence and somewhat hinder the effective north-northeastward of a warm front later today across Minnesota and Wisconsin. A very moist (low 70s F dewpoints) and unstable air mass will otherwise develop northeastward regionally in tandem with the warm front as surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Siouxland and southern Minnesota through evening. Upwards of 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected within the warm sector, with very warm mid-level temperatures associated with the elevated mixed-layer plume likely limiting warm sector development away from (south of) the immediate triple point and cold front/warm front vicinity. Multiple convective scenarios are possible late this afternoon through tonight. For one, as the air mass recovers from the early day storms, widely scattered surface-based thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon near the eastward-advancing cold front within the relatively narrow warm sector from far eastern North Dakota into northern/western Minnesota. Any storms that do develop will likely organize into supercells given strong wind profiles and the large buoyancy. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially with storms in proximity to the warm front. Additionally, on the southern fringe of the early scattered early day convection (and related cloud cover) from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, storms may form near an effective triple point/differential heating reinforced warm front. Such initial development could occur across south-central/southeast Minnesota, with robust instability/seasonally strong shear potentially supportive of an initial mode of intense supercells, with subsequent upscale growth in an MCS with heightened damaging wind potential. Additional mostly elevated storms could form tonight from eastern Minnesota into northern/central Wisconsin, on the immediate cool side of the surface baroclinic gradient as a nocturnally increasingly low-level jet heightens isentropic ascent. These storms may also pose a large hail and damaging wind risk through the overnight. An upgrade to Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) may be warranted pending morning observational/guidance trends, potentially including a corridor across south-central/southern Minnesota and west/southwest Wisconsin, where a semi-focused swath of potentially significant damaging winds appears plausible.