SNOWBOB11

I think I heard the CFS was better but still a bit warm. I honestly don’t think we are going to be able to escape a warmer than avg winter in the east. Too much working against us. Only thing that might be wrong is the LR models might be over estimating the extent of the Niña.

Just a note on summer from north of the border in Southern Ontario. Toronto which is 30 minutes west of me has already broken the record for rainfall for a summer season. We’ve already had 2 rain events bring between 4-6” of rain each including a few days ago. Needless to say this has been an extremely wet season. Wondering if we will continue this tread but with snow this upcoming winter.

I think if the PDO is going to continue to be negative we are going to continue to see warmth. It’s currently very negative even more so than last year this time. Obviously there’s more factors but I think we are currently looking at another winter like last winter where warmth will dominate the east.

A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️

Just noticed in the latest update Nino region 1+2 is now at -0.1°C. The cooling is coming and the Nino is falling apart.

Not sure where to put this but I came across this site that has different teleconnections and ENSO states and how they affect weather in NA. Sometimes I find it hard to remember or understand how each one shifts the jet either in our favour or not so I find this helpful. It’s possible it’s been posted already somewhere else but here it is anyway. https://frontierweather.dtn.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf

In all fairness I think this winter was one of the more difficult winters to put out a seasonal forecast. We were coming off a triple La Niña going into a strong Nino which is unprecedented. One would expect mild conditions with a super Nino to dominate but then the LR models had a switch to a colder Jan-Mar. There’s always the chance in seasonal forecasting it can bust but there’s also times when it doesn’t and things work out more or less as expected. I think it’s unfair to say it’s a waste of time when things don’t go as expected. I think there’s a lot to learn from how this winter turned out as a hole even though it was a pretty terrible winter for snow lovers. Time will tell how the transition to La Niña will affect next winter but I always say I’ll take my shot at a Nina over a Nino any time. At least for my areas.

Glad to see you guys finally got a decent snowfall from this system. I know you’ve been snow starved this year. Enjoy.

Ended up with a solid system today from the first of these 2 clipper type system. I had around 3”-4” from eye balling it which is the 2nd biggest snowfall this season if you can believe it. Temps around here look to stay around freezing for the next several days so it should stick around until the next warm up.

I’m not sure it ever began.😅

CMC, RGEM and NAM have about as nice a clipper as you can get (for my area) on Thursday evening. NAM looks like it’s overdoing totals with around 6”. RGEM and CMC are closer to 4”-5” but still a decent looking system.

00z GFS

Seriously? This has been the warmest least snowy winter I’ve ever experienced. You’d think we would get a shift to a bit of sustained cold but it almost has a look of late spring/summer creeping in.

Euro used to be significantly better at medium range track and intensity of storms. No question about it in my opinion. I can recall them doing an upgrade to it several years ago and it’s never been the same. It’s strange because it was a bit after that it became a free to view model. It’s actually ridiculous when you think of how it used to be basically the go to model. Right now the CMC is looking pretty good with what it had predicted from early on. It’s tough though because the CMC can be bad at times also. We’ve seen several times this year it stuck to something then change just like what the GFS just did…

I’d be cautious about the numbers the GFS is putting out. I’d more look at it for track than anything. I think a blend of the GFS/euro is best but again GFS sometimes overdoes snow totals. Not sure if it glitches the amount of CAD and doesn’t take into account enough WAA.