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MDBlueridge

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MDBlueridge last won the day on December 11 2023

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  1. Awesome pics up North! Been snowing off an on last day or two in the elevations of Western MD. Get a coating, melts, get a coating, melts rinse and repeat. Big miller B's skip us, then bless us every time.
  2. 1-7" of snow for areas above 1500'. From South mountain on west. Wind was rough and am super excited for the weather this week!
  3. Long term forecasting, not my Forte. But pieces have been on the board a lot this season. A big ripper with a strong phase will not surprise me in the slightest.
  4. Lol she's an old relic. The one I use is in the garage.
  5. Almost forgot the grill pic Snow stopped and now blue sky!
  6. Gave the boys the morning off and I'm no good left unattended.
  7. Hard to see but the freezing fog is impressive this morning.
  8. Well get to the bottom of the forecast at 4" of new snow but I know was a bust for many below the M/D line. @JDClapper i couldnt be happier for you. Sorry @Rush has been unlucky for the valleys. Melt time this week but something tells me winter isn't done.
  9. Whoa who got a hold of Sterling?! Very nice write up! As of early afternoon, a pair of mid/upper-level shortwaves were digging into the Midwest/Ohio River Valley. At the surface, a front remained stalled near the North/South Carolina border, extending west to western Tennessee where a surface low was continuing to develop. Satellite had what loosely resembled a baroclinic leaf persisting over the lower Ohio River Valley north of the surface low. Some lightning was being detected over the middle Mississippi River Valley, indicating elevated instability and strong, deep lift via low-level frontogenesis and very strong upper-level divergence in the left exit region of an incoming jet streak. Trends will be closely monitored through the evening upstream, as this system will be moving quickly eastward through tonight, bringing snow to the Mid-Atlantic. Clouds will increase through the evening as the system approaches from the west. Snow will reach the Appalachian crest early this evening. The snow will spread rapidly eastward through the evening hours, becoming heavy at times due to the strong forcing. Aloft, there will be strong PVA as well as upper-level divergence via the left exit region of a 180-200 knot jet. In the low/mid-levels, intense WAA and isentropic lift/fgen is anticipated north of the surface low. This intense, deep lift stretches through the DGZ which will be deepening especially north of US-50/I-66 tonight. For this reason, believe snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches per hour as heavier bands develop. Although the steadiest snow will likely only last 3-4 hours in any one spot, areas that are under heavier bands for most of this time could see 5-8 inches given the higher rates, and that is reflected in the high end (90th percentile) graphics. Areas with stronger orographic lift (the northern Virginia Blue Ridge and the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands and Catoctins) could even see a little more enhancement on top of that. The areas that are most likely to see warning-level accumulation appear to be our climo-favored areas near and northwest of US-29. This is where the DGZ looks deeper and the surface temperatures will be a few degrees colder, reducing or eliminating any brief initial melting of snow. This area is also favorably placed 100-150 miles north/west of the surface low track and just north of the H85 low track, with a favorable overlap of upper divergence/low-level fgen. It should be noted that some guidance and upstream trends show the potential for multiple bands of heavy snow, one perhaps more jet induced by upper-level forcing (higher ratios/deeper DGZ, but less QPF), with another driven more by low-level fgen (somewhat lower ratios but higher QPF). Between these bands, there may be a bit of subsidence and relative minima in QPF/snow. Confidence is a bit lower because of this, but has increased enough to expand the Winter Storm Warning given upstream trends and a general upward trend in QPF. Further south/east across the central Virginia Piedmont, central Shenandoah Valley (lower elevations), and southern Maryland, surface temperatures will be a touch warmer; some melting and/or mix with rain may cut down accumulations here, and a tight gradient between lower vs. higher totals is likely from south to north as a result.
  10. It has been a rough stretch for the valleys. This season has had some fun. And maybe a couple more in the hopper. I hope this one produces for you, cumberland valley etc
  11. Lol well see. Lift always seems to help, especially with storms from the west, south, east or north. Haven't seen your mountain snow gif yest this year. I like valleys odds with this one. Cold will be there.
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