Wtkidz

Not sure how much we got but needless to say it was quite a bit. Congrats to all who got the sleet and snow.

Lwx LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An area of low pressure will be exiting on Thursday as the associated shortwave energy from the southern jet departs and begins to phase with the northern stream off to our northeast. The bulk of the rainfall from this system will have already fallen by 12z Thursday, with less than a quarter inch of QPF near and east of the DC metro during the morning. After this system, brief ridging is expected Thursday into Friday with subsidence behind the shortwave. Then the synoptic pattern becomes more amplified as southern stream energy moves from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes and interacts with a shortwave diving south from east-central Canada Friday into Saturday. The result is likely a large and potent surface low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley, but there is uncertainty regarding the interaction of these two features, yielding significant spread on low location and timing within guidance. For our area, we can at least expect rain and possibly gusty winds. Precipitation from this system is expected to reach our area Friday, most likely Friday evening, and continue through Saturday. Rain could continue into Saturday night, possibly with upslope snow along the Alleghenies, but will depend on how much cold air the low manages to bring. QPF varies given the uncertainty and generally has 0.5-0.75" for the area as of now, but will continue to monitor the flood threat following the rain earlier in the week.

To me warmer and wet..

Lwx keeping the mention of winter… A much stronger trough - part left over from the system currently affecting the West Coast, and another part from an upper-level low currently over the Gulf of Alaska - is progged to push toward the eastern half of the CONUS by the end of the week. Stronger low pressure and moisture advection would be probable in this setup, given the stronger overall jet pattern surrounding it. Some guidance (like the 03/00Z GFS) has enough cold air bleeding into the region in the wake of the mid week system(s) that wintry precipitation comes into the picture, though with a lack of a signal for more persistent deeper cold this scenario appears to be a bit less likely, especially outside the higher elevations (typical of March).

Well if anything happens I will be in Crossville , Tennessee. So that makes sense.

Radar and I return to my bunker…

Of course no weather to be concerned in my neck of the wood. Fredericksburg , Va the most dull weather in 2024.. and I like it that way.

00z EURO

06Z GFS

Just an fyi. lwx afd NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Shortwave low pressure continues to lift north and east through eastern PA this morning with its associated cold front sagging southward into central VA. Light shower activity continues to accompany this boundary mainly across northeast MD this morning. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail with thickening cloud cover as an additional shortwave low pressure system approaches from the Ohio River Valley. This low pressure system will ride along the slow moving cold front into southwest and central VA this morning and into the afternoon hours. Accumulating snow is possible along the Alleghenies, portions of the Potomac Highlands, and central Blue Ridge/Shenandoah Valley. Hi-res deterministic/ensemble guidance continues to illustrate 1 to 3 inches of snow in these locations above 2500 feet with a worst case scenario of 3 to 6 inches especially along the highest ridges (i.e western Highland and Pendleton Counties as well as up around Wintergreen/Afton Mountain along the Blue Ridge). Some uncertainty remains in regards to overall accumulation due largely in part to the bulk of the snow falling within the max insolation period this afternoon into early evening 18-00z/1-7pm. For now, will hold off on any headlines given the uncertainty with a mention in the HWO. Headlines maybe needed though given the amount of QPF and intensity of any frontogenetic forcing/dynamical cooling as the low slides south and east. Either way, if you are traveling in these areas plan for slick road conditions as temperatures look to fall throughout the day and into tonight as additional CAA pours in. Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail with a slight chance of rain mainly in areas south of I- 66/US-48 (Corridor H).

Go Jay go…… get that snizzle.

Sterling talks about snow showers. ‘the mountains of course. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Favorable upslope flow persists into the morning hours with additional light snow for the Alleghenies. Storm total snow amounts will likely range from a trace to an inch. Meanwhile, a formidable shortwave trough is slated to track from the lower Ohio Valley over to the Carolinas on Saturday. Ascent ahead of these height falls may spread some light to moderate precipitation across the Potomac Highlands down toward I-64. This signal continues in a slew of the reliable numerical weather models. Moisture is somewhat sparse, but ample dynamics should help make up for some of this deficiency. Light snow amounts are possible, with the highest amounts likely to be over the central Blue Ridge where 1 to 2 inches is expected through Saturday evening. Elsewhere, a subtle wave tracking along the Mason-Dixon Line early Saturday morning could spread some snowflakes for areas north of I-70. This would largely be from the pre-dawn hours toward the late morning.