Psu1313

We got a bit lucky. That dry air really saved this from being a bit worse. I assume people are still consuming hurricanes on bourbon st., right?

Dry air and sheer really did a number. High cloud tops are starting to boil around the center so this is not over, but a good sign for the moment that she is taking more time to organize .

My concern is that there is a potential route further east closer to New Orleans. I wouldn’t predict it at this moment, but it’s not a solution that is completely off the table.

Not loving the trends. This storm can go boom. I almost feel like 115 at landfall is my low estimate.

This one has me concerned for over performance. Sheer on the northern flank should lessen. If our system stays over water long enough to land in central Louisiana (see GFS), it will have a bit more time to collect strength. Between the very warm waters, a burgeoning storm that I don’t anticipate would have issues with its core, and just enough time, I could easily see this taking off. TS today, Hurricane by tomorrow and we just have to hope for lots of land interaction to limit the strength. sorry for the lack of charts this morning. I’m on my iPad.

GFS seems to be latching on to something next week. 18z ran up Mobile Bay and 06z has a strong system in W Louisiana. Euro runs a system ashore in the Yucatán in a similar timespan. We might have something to look at in the next 4-7 days potentially.

That's downright fall-ish

The rainfall rates this afternoon were insane. We received about 2 inches of rain in short order and I’m not sure what we got with the 2nd round. Looks like I am going to see Debby up close and personal on my drive through West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina on Friday. That will make for an exciting ride. 😣 Deb never optimized the winds, but she is an absolute qpf machine so far in the Southeast.

With the new advisory we have hurricane Debby. Thankfully she’ll be on shore in the morning before she really has a chance to go nuclear.

My brother is Army and stationed in the same area. 8am update, Debby is up to 60mph but same pressure. Shes still lopsided to the east but trying to change that.

I understand where you are coming from. Debby currently has limitations from the structure. Can it get going? Absolutely, but the next 24 hours will be structural in nature. If this storm comes ashore Monday afternoon then it has 48 hours over water. I lean toward high end cat 1 low end cat 2 at this moment but a strengthening storm at landfall is the worst. I’m also headed down to Florida at the end of the week so I have a lot of personal interest in this one.

Does Ski Land do night skiing? That would be an awesome experience taking a run under the northern lights. I imagine they don't have lights, but worth the question.

Congrats...I guess! At least you won't have to be on a razor's edge as to whether you're going to get some snow. 🙂

Sorry it has taken me a few days to respond, work and kids get in the way these days. The data does not sure what you are saying. Summer is only a month old, but everything runs close enough to normal or WAYYY above normal. Some of the near normal is cooler highs but higher lows. For the year, it's just continuous warmth.... https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202406 Thankfully, a pretty strong cold front is going to come through this week, but longer range it really looks like the heat is going to return starting its build next weekend in the midwest.

For who? This is probably the most relentless set of above average temps I have ever seen for most of the lower 48.