MidwestWX

This is the price I pay after having measured over 100" last year. It doesn't help that it's been an awful season for outdoor recreation, too.

I believe there is an issue with global deterministic models and their ability to resolve initial MSLP w/respect to tropical cyclones. I'll either verify or disprove this when I get to work in 5 hours but this storm does mean business!

Sometimes you tell your neighbors "you either get on board or get off the TRACKS!" Edit: if you didn't realize it....but I'm joking! We have an excellent group of forecasters at the WFO and we're fortunate enough to have a few of our best Winter WX folks work this event. While we may disagree sometimes during the initial collaboration process, our concern is to provide the best quality forecast to our partners and consumers. We're under a bullseye for this system so going to a WW.Y would have sent conflicting messaging. It was also a very high end advisory and/or low end warning with what we had in the grids. This first wave was going to likely trend higher due to FGEN banding so we opted to make things simple for ourselves. We have a wonderful relationship with our media partners. One piece of feedback was to avoid downplaying precursor events. So we're going to be proactive with scenarios like this and lead by example. Looks like everyone else got on board eventually... Funny how that happens? 😜

The Old Happy Hour GFS never disappoints but fracturing should limit ratios for the second half of the system.

Correct! I At this point, both waves will produce WSW level snows across most of the area. Our main gripe is what we do with C MN counties for wave 1 due to WW.Y type impacts/accum. I'm still waiting for the rug to get pulled out from under my feet but I'll save my met thoughts for the AFD. EDIT: We're just going to message the clipper's impacts for tonight/Monday. If we didn't have this on the door step I'd likely have something out for it, too.

You can make an exception for this type of event. If Sunday 00z and 12z runs are still consistent I'd expect to see some watches pop up. There is actually some wiggle room but it's usually downplayed to avoid getting a rug pull scenario. I'm pumped regardless!

The synoptic set up for this system is impressive. A potent jet diving down the west coast, and the long-duration west/east frontal boundary overhead should set the stage for some impressive precipitation & snow potential somewhere. There is also the potential for an significant ICE storm across the eastern cornbelt region into southern MI. It'll be a long few days ahead, but time is ticking before we hoist watches across the region and I suspect that will be sooner than later due to the significant impacts possible with this system(s).

Fine you've woken me up from my mid Winter slumber. After two record rain events the past month it's about time for some snow! This is an especially tricky setup/pattern but there is a particularly large window to make something happen across the upper Midwest. Let's take it a day at a time and enjoy the journey.

I'd prefer to pad my stats at MSP 😉

It's fun between 20F to 75F otherwise it can be uncomfortable (too cold or hot). I really enjoy launches in late April > May and again in Late August > September. That's where a bulk of my weather story (social media graphics) photos come from because I can catch sunrise or sunset. Doing a launch during Wind Chill Warning conditions ranks up there with one of the worst experiences possible since you may have to change a tank to finish inflation and/or need to tie one of ~ten knots. I have a pair of thin gloves that allow me to not go bare handed BUT they don't help much at -35 or colder WC. It's also awful when you have 70F+ dew points and you're in work attire.

I'll be sure to toss my coffee up while I launch the balloon. 😁

This pattern could lead us to a few nasty ice storms along the southern edge of the gradient.

Very nice! My snow/glacier depth is around 13-14" with just under 4" from yesterday's system. I'm happy as it freshened it up!

I've managed between 3 to 4" of fluff on top of the glacier. Now I just want some cold air to return… (and it should...)

A bit of a correction to the southeast over the last few model runs but it'll still be a decent system for my forecast area. I'm hoping for 3 to 5" in the TC but we managed to squeeze an inch of slop out of today's mess after ~0.4" of rain.